3/19 Trade Plan

Original plan

⚡ RAIN x Break + Retest Trade Plan — 3/18/26 3/19/20262 min read Ticker: /ES Timeframe: 30m Bias: Neutral → Range until FOMC Theme: Overnight expansion → full retrace → compression at 6,800 pivot 🛡️Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts. Only trade at defined levels — if it’s mid-range or unclear, it’s a pass. Match size & frequency to conditions — chop = reduce activity, not increase it. Eliminate urgency — baby accounts grow through defense, not forcedoffense. 🧭 Context Overnight pushed 6,765 → 6,814, then fully retraced — now consolidating around 6,800. This is balance, not trend, sitting in a 6,765–6,814 range into FOMC. Expect chop and fakeouts pre-announcement. Real move likely comes after. Key levels: 6,765 — confirmed demand 6,800 — pivot 6,814+ — needs acceptance for upside 📊 Key Levels 🟩 Support 6,795–6,800 — Pivot / higher-low zone 6,775–6,765 — Confirmed demand (overnight double bottom) 6,700 — Major support / 200DMA 🟥 Resistance 6,814 — Overnight high 6,850 — 20DMA / key breakout level 🟢A + Setup — Deeper Pullback Long Zone: 6,775–6,765 Trigger Controlled pullback Buyers defend demand zone Targets 6,800 6,814 Stop Acceptance below 6,750 🟢B + Setup — Reclaim Long Zone: 6,795–6,800 Trigger Pullback holds the zone Higher low forms on 30min Buyers defend pivot Targets 6,814 6,850 (20DMA) Stop Acceptance below 6,780 Logic Holding this level maintains the higher-low structure and opens continuation into resistance. 🔴 A + Setup — Range High Rejection Zone: 6,814 Trigger Push into overnight high Rejection / failure to hold Targets 6,780 6,765 Stop Acceptance above 6,830 🔴 B + Setup — Breakdown to 200DMA Zone: Below 6,765 Trigger 30min close below support Failed reclaim Targets 6,720 6,700 (200DMA) Stop Reclaim of 6,785 Logic Loss of overnight demand breaks structure and shifts control back to sellers. 🧩 RAIN Confirmation 1️⃣ Directional 30min close 2️⃣ Reaction quality at 6,800 pivot / 6,765 demand 3️⃣ VWAP alignment 4️⃣ Trade structure extremes only ⏳ Best window: 10–11:00 AM 🚫 No mid-range trades 🚫 No chasing breakouts pre-FOMC 🛡️ Execution Reminder This is a pre-FOMC environment: Expect fakeouts and chop Real move likely comes after the announcement SPY (30 Min) The 674.60 level we had is spot on here... looks like that will be the line in the sand for SPY. This is the previous lows from Mon/Tues of last week. If we can reclaim, I love the opportunity on the upside towards the 20DMA & 680. Clean channel to trade within towards that 680. If we fail 674, we are going to retest the 670 demand once again. We will need to continue to hold 670/671 to maintain bullish structure.