★ Highest Probability
7667–7672 Pop & Fade Short
- Trigger
- CPI pushes into 7667–7672 and price rejects/fails to reclaim the zone.
- Target
- 7629 → 7613 → 7600
- Invalidation
- Acceptance above 7672.
Thursday 10 September 2026 · /ES (September Contract)
9/10 Trade Plan
Bias · Neutral → Directional after PPI
Range / Pre-PPI Chop
Key levels
7703.33Resistance · 20DMA
7691.25Resistance · PDH
7654–7647Support · Demand
7636.44Support · 50DMA
7628.75Support · PDL
Context
ES continues to chop inside the established range, currently around 7649.75. The 50DMA at 7636.44 and PDL at 7628.75 remain the key downside decision area, while PDH 7691.25 and the 20DMA at 7703.33 cap the upside. PPI at 8:30 is the catalyst — expect volatility, but let price establish direction before committing.
Second Opportunity
7629–7632 Breakdown Short
- Trigger
- Clean break below 7629–7632 followed by a failed retest.
- Target
- 7613 → 7600
- Invalidation
- Reclaim of 7632.
Only If
7672 Reclaim Long
- Trigger
- CPI reaction reclaims and holds above 7672.
- Target
- 7691 → 7703
- Invalidation
- Failed reclaim back below 7672.
Avoid
- Trading the middle of 7632–7667 before CPI.
- Guessing the CPI direction.
- Chasing the first CPI candle.
- Shorting directly into 7629–7632 demand.
Focus · if → then
- 7667–7672 rejects → 7629–7632
- 7629 fails → 7613 → 7600
- 7672 reclaims → 7691 → 7703
Today's reminder
CPI is the catalyst. Don't predict the move — trade the reaction.
How it played out
The primary setup triggered, then hit its invalidation.
triggered, then invalidated at 7672. Measured from m15 bars, ESZ6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
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