★ Highest Probability
7724–7739 Pop & Fade Short
- Trigger
- Rejection and failure to reclaim 7724–7739.
- Target
- 7654
- Invalidation
- Acceptance above 7739.
Tuesday 8 September 2026 · /ES (September Contract)
9/8 Trade Plan
Bias · Bearish below 7739
Choppy / Channel
Key levels
7770Resistance
7739Resistance · 20DMA / Previous ATH
7724Resistance
7654Support · Demand
Context
ES is back below the major 4HR low at 7724 and previous ATH at 7739. Until we reclaim 7739, upside should be treated cautiously. Repeated rejection of 7724–7739 keeps pressure on the downside toward 7654 demand.
Second Opportunity
7654 Demand Hold Long
- Trigger
- Buyers defend 7654 and establish a higher low.
- Target
- 7724 → 7739
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7654.
Only If
7739 Reclaim Long
- Trigger
- Reclaim and hold above 7739.
- Target
- 7770 → ATH
- Invalidation
- Failed reclaim back below 7739.
Avoid
- Chasing shorts into 7654 demand.
- Forcing trades inside the channel.
- Assuming upside before 7739 is reclaimed.
Focus · if → then
- 7724–7739 rejects → 7654
- 7654 holds → 7724 → 7739
- 7739 reclaims → 7770 → ATH
Today's reminder
We are below major resistance. Let the market prove the reclaim.
How it played out
The primary setup never confirmed, so there was no trade.
price never reached 7724. Measured from m15 bars, ESU6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
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