★ Highest Probability
7647–7655 Pop & Fade Short
- Trigger
- Push into 7647–7655 followed by clear rejection and failure to reclaim the zone.
- Target
- 7621 → 7611 → 7600
- Invalidation
- Acceptance above 7655.
Wednesday 2 September 2026 · /ES (September Contract)
9/2 Trade Plan
Bias · Bearish Until Reclaim
Sell-Off / Testing 50 DMA
Key levels
7725Resistance · 20DMA
7673Resistance
7647Resistance
7621Support · PDL
7611Support · 50DMA
7437–7348Support · HTF MBO Demand
Context
ES continues to sell off and is testing PDL 7621 and the 50 DMA 7611 — the immediate decision area. 7647–7655 is the key overhead zone. As long as ES remains below it, bearish pressure remains favored. Rejection there opens 7621 → 7611 → 7600. If 7611–7621 holds, a relief bounce is possible, but confirmation is required. Acceptance below 7600 opens 7570–7562. The 20 DMA 7725 remains major overhead resistance. Reclaiming 7655 would weaken the bearish thesis and open 7673. The larger 7348–7437 MBO cluster stays on the radar but is not a day-trade target unless nearer support breaks.
Second Opportunity
7613–7600 Breakdown Short
- Trigger
- Clean break below 7611–7621 followed by a failed retest.
- Target
- 7600 → 7570 → 7562
- Invalidation
- Reclaim of 7621.
Only If
7655 Reclaim Long
- Trigger
- Clean reclaim of 7655 followed by acceptance above the level.
- Target
- 7673 → upside continuation
- Invalidation
- Failure back below 7655.
Avoid
- Chasing shorts directly into 7611–7621 support.
- Anticipating the breakdown before price confirms acceptance below support.
- Buying 7611–7621 simply because it holds; require responsive buying and confirmation.
- Trading inside the 7611–7655 range without confirmation.
Focus · if → then
- 7611–7621 holds → 7647 → 7673
- 7673 rejects → 7621 → 7611
- 7611 fails → 7437 → 7348
Today's reminder
Respect the levels. Let price prove the direction.
How it played out
The primary setup never confirmed, so there was no trade.
reached 7647 but never confirmed. Measured from m15 bars, ESU6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
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