Friday 17 April 2026 · /ES · 15M

4/17 Trade Plan

Bias · Bullish → Bearish only below 7,046 Melt-up above ATH → continuation vs exhaustion

Key levels

7,106Resistance · overnight high

7,078–7,070Support · prior ATH / hold

7,050Support · secondary support

7,046Support · breakdown trigger

(Above = continued price discovery)Resistance

Context

ES pushed into new ATH overnight (~7,106) after a steady melt-up, now trading in price discovery well above prior highs (~7,077). This is no longer a clean breakout—this is extension. That means: Less edge chasing longs Higher probability of pullback / rotation before continuation Key levels now shift: 7,078–7,070 = prior ATH → first support 7,050 = secondary support 7,046 = breakdown trigger Key idea: Above 7,070 → trend intact Below 7,046 → unwind begins

★ A+ Setup

Pullback Hold Long (Primary)

Zone: 7,078–7,070
Trigger: Pullback into prior ATH; Clean hold + higher low
Target: 7,106 → → extension (trail)
Invalidation: Acceptance below 7,050

👉 This is still the best trade; 👉 But needs patience after extension

B+ Setup

Continuation Break

Zone: Above 7,106
Trigger: Break and HOLD above overnight high
Target: Price discovery (trail)
Invalidation: Loss of 7,080

👉 Lower probability after melt-up; 👉 Don’t chase first push

A+ Setup

Breakdown Below 7,046

Zone: Below 7,046
Trigger: Loss of structure; Failed reclaim
Target: 7,000 → 6,950
Invalidation: Reclaim above 7,070

👉 This is the real shift; 👉 Melt-up → unwind move

B+ Setup

Failed Breakout at Highs

Zone: 7,100–7,106
Trigger: Push into highs; Sharp rejection
Target: 7,070 → 7,050
Invalidation: Acceptance above 7,120

👉 Quick reaction trade only; 👉 Don’t overstay

Confirmation

1️⃣ 15m acceptance at 7,070 or 7,106
2️⃣ Reaction at extremes only
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ No chasing extended moves
No chasing above ATH
No shorting blindly
No trading middle

Mindset

This is extension → not clean breakout
Best trade = pullback, not continuation
If it doesn’t pull back → let it go
One clean trade → you’re done
SPY (15MIN)
Holding above 702 will be the key today. If we maintain, you continue grinding higher. Below 701.58, you may see the 700 demand zone again. Strong holds between 699.26/700.28. Also a clean bear trap at the lows yesterday, definitely a lot of buying absorption at those lows. Pullback long market seems to be the right look.

Best window

10–11:30AM

How it played out

The primary setup never confirmed, so there was no trade.

price never reached 7070. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, touch-based invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

4/16ATH Breakout & Hold 4/15Rejection at Highs 4/14Pullback Long (Primary)4/13Lower High Rejection (Primary)