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Monday 13 April 2026 · /ES · 30M

4/13 Trade Plan

Bias · Neutral → Bullish above 6,850 / Bearish below 6,772 Lower high vs hold at 200DMA → compression before move

Key levels

6,900Resistance · 100DMA supply
6,850Resistance · lower high / decision
6,772Support · 200DMA / hold
6,700Support · major pullback

Context

Price is sitting between 6,850 resistance (Wednesday high) and 6,772 support (200DMA). We’ve already seen rejection near highs, and the question now is simple: Does 6,850 turn into a lower high → rotation lower Or do we reclaim and squeeze into 6,900 supply The bigger picture hasn’t changed: 6,900 (100DMA) = heavy supply 6,700 = likely pullback destination if 200DMA fails This is a patience day inside a range, not a chase environment.

★ A+ Setup

Lower High Rejection (Primary)

Zone
6,850
Trigger
Push into resistance; Failure to break / lower high forms
Target
6,800 → 6,772
Invalidation
Acceptance above 6,870

👉 This is the cleanest trade; 👉 Aligns with current structure (failing highs)

A+ Setup

Breakdown Below 200DMA

Zone
Below 6,772
Trigger
Loss of support; Failed reclaim
Target
6,720 → 6,700
Invalidation
Reclaim above 6,800

👉 This is the real move; 👉 Opens downside expansion

B+ Setup

Hold at 200DMA

Zone
6,772
Trigger
Pullback into support; Clean hold
Target
6,820 → 6,850
Invalidation
Acceptance below 6,750

👉 Reaction trade only; 👉 Lower confidence inside range

B+ Setup

Reclaim 6,850

Zone
Above 6,850
Trigger
Break and HOLD above
Target
6,900
Invalidation
Loss of 6,820

👉 Tight scalps only; 👉 Heavy supply overhead

Confirmation

  • 1️⃣ 30m acceptance at 6,850 or 6,772
  • 2️⃣ Reaction at extremes only
  • 3️⃣ VWAP aligned
  • 4️⃣ No chasing
  • No trading inside 6,800–6,830
  • No chasing into 6,900
  • No early entries

Mindset

  • This is a range between key levels → don’t force trades
  • Best trade = lower high or breakdown
  • Longs are secondary unless proven
  • One clean trade → you’re done
  • SPY (15MIN)
  • Gap down into our demand zone... no major changes to levels here. Look for the lower high rejection at the 100DMA & 678 today. I like that spot. If we reclaim the 100DMA, we are back into Friday highs. Below 670, we can see the real gap fill move towards 200DMA.

Best window

10–11:30AM

How it played out

Not scored yet. Every plan is checked against what the market actually did, and nothing is edited after the fact.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

4/10Acceptance Above Supply4/9Breakout Above 50DMA4/8Pullback Hold Long (Primary)4/7Pullback Hold Long (Primary Bias)