Wednesday 28 January 2026 · /ES · 30 Min

1/28 Trade Plan

Bias · Bullish → Cautious at ATH Structure reclaim → Expansion → Event-risk discipline

Key levels

7,066.25Support · 76.4% extension

7,051.00Support · 50.0% extension

7,044.25Support · 38.2% extension

7,036.25Resistance · ATH / decision point

7,006–6,994Support · Prior breakout support

6,969–6,964Support · Structure highs / ideal pullback

6,925–6,923Support · Deeper demand / last line

📐 FIB Extension Targets (Upside)Support

Context

The break and hold above 6,964–6,969 was textbook. Former structure flipped to support, consolidation did its job, and ES expanded higher exactly as it should. Monday highs were reclaimed and defended — that opened the door to new ATHs, and now we’re pressing into 7,036. Important wrinkle today: 👉 FOMC at 2:00 PM 👉 Elevated risk, fake moves, and fast reversals likely This is a pullback-buy environment, not a chase environment — especially ahead of news. Market personality: • Strong structure • Shallow pullbacks • Event-driven volatility later Trade the levels. Respect the clock.

★ A+ Setup

Pullback Long (Primary)

Zone: 7,006–6,994; 6,969–6,964 (20DMA area); Acceptance below 20DMA / 6,964
Trigger: Controlled pullback; Higher low holds; Delta stabilizes / turns positive; VWAP supports price; Rejection wicks; Absorption at lows; Delta confirms; VWAP flattens or curls up; Failed reclaim; Lower high forms; Delta turns negative; VWAP caps price
Target: 7,036.25 (ATH test) → 7,006 → 7,036 extension if momentum rebuilds → 6,925–6,923
Invalidation: Acceptance below 6,994; Acceptance below 6,964; Reclaim above 6,969

This is the cleanest trade if offered.; No chasing strength into ATH.; 🟢 Secondary Setup — Structure Retest Long; Ideal location if we get deeper rotation.; 🔴 Breakdown Short (Conditional Only); No shorts while structure is intact.; This is only if buyers fail.; 🚫 ABSOLUTE RULE — NO EXCEPTIONS; 🍼 Baby account is CLOSED during the morning session.; When you traded less:; ✔ You traded better; ✔ Large accounts grew correctly; ✔ Big R showed up; ✔ Work actually protected you; Morning trading doesn’t sharpen you —; it drains you.

Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional candle (no overlap)
2️⃣ Delta confirms price
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ Absorption at the level — not mid-range
Be careful into 2:00 PM FOMC — reduce size or step aside.

Mindset

Structure is bullish — but events change behavior.
You don’t need to trade everything today.
Pullbacks > breakouts
Levels > opinions
Discipline > excitement
SPY (1 HR)
Pullbacks between 694/696 are likely the best entries here. Will look to see if we can retest those previous highs this week for new opportunities. Deeper pullbacks to the 690/691 are still good.
We are expanding over the 20DMA, eventually that pullback will come in. Maybe we get the 700 SPY target today.
FOMC at 2PM.

Best window

10–11:00 AM

How it played out

The primary setup never confirmed, so there was no trade.

price never reached 6994. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

1/27Pullback Long (Primary)1/23Demand Hold Long (Primary)1/22Higher-Low Long (Primary)1/21Pop & Fade Short (Primary)