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Thursday 22 January 2026 · /ES · 30 Min

1/22 Trade Plan

Bias · Neutral → Bullish above support / Bearish below 50DMA Higher-low attempt → Reclaim vs fail

Key levels

7,017Resistance · Major breakout supply
6,976Resistance · 20DMA / key reclaim
6,955Resistance · Near-term supply
6,923–6,904Support · Tues/Wed highs → must hold for bulls
6,866Support · Prior demand / rotation low
6,800Support · 100DMA / major downside test

Context

Today is about structure. The market’s job is to turn the Tues/Wed highs into higher lows — if it can’t, downside opens again. We are in a prove-it zone: 👉 Hold prior highs = upside continuation 👉 Lose them + lose the 50DMA = rotation lower No assumptions. Let price show its hand. Market personality: • Two-sided trade • Reclaims matter • Breaks without acceptance will fail

★ A+ Setup

Higher-Low Long (Primary)

Zone
6,923–6,904
Trigger
Pullback into prior highs; Support holds / higher low forms; Delta stabilizes → turns positive; VWAP holds below price
Target
6,955 → 6,976 (20DMA) → Extension: 7,017 if momentum builds
Invalidation
Acceptance below 6,904

This is the clean bullish trade today.; If this zone fails, stand down on longs.

A+ Setup

50DMA Failure Short

Zone
Acceptance below the 50DMA; Acceptance above 6,976 (20DMA)
Trigger
Failed hold of Tues/Wed highs; Lower high on retest; Delta turns negative; VWAP caps price; Clean reclaim + hold; No immediate rejection; Delta expansion; VWAP supports price
Target
6,866 → 6,800 (100DMA) → 7,017
Invalidation
Reclaim back above the 50DMA; Back below 6,955

This is a rotation short, not a breakdown chase.; 🟡 Secondary Setup — Reclaim & Go Long; Only take this if acceptance is clear — no chasing.; 🚫 ABSOLUTE RULE — NO EXCEPTIONS; 🍼 Baby account is CLOSED during the morning session.; When you traded less:; ✔ You traded better; ✔ Large accounts grew correctly; ✔ Big R showed up; ✔ Work actually protected you; Morning trading doesn’t sharpen you —; it drains you.

Confirmation

  • 1️⃣ Directional candle (no overlap, no chop)
  • 2️⃣ Delta confirms price
  • 3️⃣ VWAP aligned with trade direction
  • 4️⃣ Absorption at the level — not mid-range
  • No early chop trades. No forcing.

Mindset

  • This is a decision day, not a conviction day.
  • Let structure form first — then act.
  • And say it out loud:
  • Baby account stays closed early.
  • You already know you see direction later.
  • Trade calm. Trade less. Trade better.
  • SPY (30Min)
  • The key pullback spot to watch today is between 684.77 & 686. This would be a retest of the Wednesday lows of last week & Tuesday highs. If we can defend that spot, that is a great pullback long.
  • Below 684.77, we could see some slippage towards the 50DMA again at 681.42 & 679.
  • Target for now is the gap fill at 691.35. Above that, we run towards the ATH again.

Best window

10–11:00 AM

How it played out

The primary setup never confirmed, so there was no trade.

price never reached 6904. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation, levels shifted +0 from None. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

1/21Pop & Fade Short (Primary)1/20Pop & Fade at 50DMA (Primary)1/16Higher-Low Long (Primary)1/15Pullback Long (Primary)