Wednesday 21 January 2026 · /ES · 1HR

1/21 Trade Plan

Bias · Bearish → Reactive at reclaim zones Failed reclaim → Test of 100DMA → Thin downside risk

Key levels

6,923–6,935Resistance · Major supply (unlikely without regime shift)

6,890Resistance · 50DMA / upside reclaim level

6,858–6,866Resistance · Key rejection zone (A+ fade area)

6,813–6,800Support · 100DMA + psychological level

6,771Support · December lows (major demand)

6,756Support · September low / thin liquidity below

Context

The repeated rejections at 6,858–6,866 continue to cap upside. That zone lines up with the 01/02 lows, and the market has made it clear: supply is still in control. We are now rotating lower into the 100DMA, which becomes the immediate decision point. This is not a market to assume support — reclaims are required for any upside continuation. Primary idea: 👉 Failure at prior lows = lower prices 👉 100DMA test decides the next leg 👉 Below 6,800, liquidity thins fast Market personality: • Weak rallies • Pop-and-fade behavior • Sellers still in control until proven otherwise

★ A+ Setup

Pop & Fade Short (Primary)

Zone: 6,858–6,866; 6,813–6,800; Acceptance below 6,800
Trigger: Rally into supply; Stall / rejection candles; Delta divergence or absorption at highs; VWAP caps price; Strong rejection wicks at the 100DMA; Absorption at lows; Delta stabilizes / flips positive; VWAP flattens or curls up; No responsive buying; Delta stays negative; Failed reclaim of 6,800
Target: 6,813 → 6,800 → Extension: 6,771 if 100DMA fails → 6,858 → 6,866 (only if momentum builds) → 6,771 → 6,756
Invalidation: Clean acceptance above 6,866; Acceptance below 6,800; Reclaim back above 6,813

This remains the highest-probability trade.; Let price come to you — do not chase breakdowns.; 🟢 Secondary Setup — 100DMA Reaction Long (Conditional); This is a tactical reaction long, not a trend call.; If 6,800 fails, step aside — downside opens quickly.; 🟡 Breakdown Continuation (If 6,800 Fails); Below 6,756, liquidity gets thin — expect speed, not structure.; 🚫 ABSOLUTE RULE — NO EXCEPTIONS; 🍼 Baby account is CLOSED during the morning session.; When you traded less:; ✔ You traded better; ✔ Large accounts grew correctly; ✔ Big R showed up; ✔ Work actually protected you; Morning trading doesn’t sharpen you —; it drains you.

Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional candle (no overlap, no chop)
2️⃣ Delta confirms direction
3️⃣ VWAP aligned with bias
4️⃣ Absorption at levels, not mid-range
No mid-range gambling. No forcing trades.

Mindset

This is a reaction market, not a prediction market.
The edge is patience — not bravery.
Fade strength. Respect demand.
Let others argue with the tape.
SPY (1HR)
680 rejections is all we need to know... under that, weak. Above 680, we flip bullish. Stay on the side of 680 for now.
Target to the downside looks to be the 674/673 demand. Major test here & I would expect to see that today.
That is also the 100DMA level. Below that, you have the December lows at 671.20. Breaking that, you get the September high relatively quickly at 667.34.

Best window

10–11:00 AM

How it played out

The primary setup never confirmed, so there was no trade.

reached 6858 but never confirmed. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

1/20Pop & Fade at 50DMA (Primary)1/16Higher-Low Long (Primary)1/15Pullback Long (Primary)1/14Breakdown Continuation Short (Primary)