Tuesday 20 January 2026 · /ES · 1HR

1/20 Trade Plan

Bias · Bearish → Reactive at major reclaim / fade levels Gap down into MA demand → Reaction day, not a trend chase

Key levels

6,976Resistance · Breakdown origin (unlikely today)

6,923–6,935Resistance · Major supply / balance resistance

6,890Resistance · 50DMA (primary fade level)

6,847–6,868Support · Overnight low + reclaim zone (very important)

6,830Support · Interim support

6,800Support · Psychological + continuation risk

6,770Support · Acceleration if structure fully breaks

Context

Big overnight gap down into 100DMA demand with an immediate reaction off 6,847. That level mattered — price respected it on first touch, so this is now a decision zone, not an automatic breakdown. This is not the type of morning to chase downside. Expect: • Violent reactions • Short-covering pops • Sellers needing confirmation again Primary idea: 👉 Reactions at major MAs 👉 Fades into supply 👉 Reclaims required before any real longs Let the market show its hand.

★ A+ Setup

Pop & Fade at 50DMA (Primary)

Zone: 6,890 (50DMA); Acceptance above 6,868 → 6,890; Acceptance below 6,847
Trigger: Rally into the 50DMA; Stalling / rejection candles; Delta divergence or absorption at highs; VWAP fails to reclaim; Clean reclaim of 6,868; Hold above overnight low; Delta turns positive; VWAP flips supportive; Failure of 100DMA; No responsive buying; Delta stays negative
Target: 6,868 → 6,847 → Extension: 6,830 if momentum builds → 6,890 (50DMA) → 6,923 only if momentum builds → 6,830 → 6,800
Invalidation: Clean acceptance above 6,890; Back below 6,847; Reclaim back above 6,847

This is the best trade location today.; Do not short into the hole — let price come to supply.; 🟢 Secondary Setup — Reclaim Long (Conditional); This is a reaction long, not a trend bet.; If reclaim fails, step aside quickly.; 🟡 Breakdown Continuation (Lower Probability); Be cautious — first breaks after gaps often fake.; 🚫 ABSOLUTE RULE — NO EXCEPTIONS; 🍼 Baby account is CLOSED during the morning session.; When you traded less:; ✔ You traded better; ✔ Large accounts grew correctly; ✔ Big R showed up; ✔ Work actually protected you; Morning trading doesn’t sharpen you —; it drains you.

Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional candle (no overlap)
2️⃣ Delta confirms price
3️⃣ VWAP aligned with trade
4️⃣ Absorption at levels, not mid-range
No gap chasing. No emotional shorts.

Mindset

Gap days punish impatience.
You don’t get paid for being early — you get paid for being right.
Let others chase.
You trade levels, reactions, and structure.
Calm execution > activity.
SPY (1HR)
Major demand between 678.50/680 on SPY. Not a zone I would be looking to short into. We also have the 50DMA here that will attempt to keep action higher. Look for a higher level like 686 for fades.
If we break below 678.50, I believe you see downside towards the 675/674 major demand.

Best window

10–11:00 AM

How it played out

The primary setup triggered, then hit its invalidation.

triggered, then invalidated at 6890. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

1/16Higher-Low Long (Primary)1/15Pullback Long (Primary)1/14Breakdown Continuation Short (Primary)1/13CPI Pop & Fade (Primary)