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Tuesday 13 January 2026 · /ES · 1HR

1/13 Trade Plan

Bias · Neutral → Lean Fade unless acceptance above CPI high CPI relief pop → Liquidity test → Acceptance vs rejection decides the day

Key levels

7045–7050Resistance · Extension only if CPI high accepts
7036Resistance · CPI spike high (very important)
7010–7006Support · Prior ATH / first pullback magnet
6990Support · Major pivot (fails = air pocket)
6963Support · CPI fade target / value below

Context

CPI came in as expected — that’s not bullish fuel, that’s permission for a reaction. The move to 7036 at 8:30 is the market clearing stops and testing supply, not proving strength. Primary idea: 👉 CPI high = new reference point 👉 Acceptance = continuation 👉 Rejection = fade back into range Market personality post-CPI: • Fast impulse • Then decision • Then real direction Do nothing until price tells you which one it is.

★ A+ Setup

CPI Pop & Fade (Primary)

Zone
7030–7036; Acceptance above 7036
Trigger
Failure to hold above CPI high; Upper wicks / stalled candles; Delta diverges or flips negative; VWAP holds above price; Hold above CPI high for 2+ candles; Delta expands with price; VWAP below price, not chasing it
Target
7010 → 6990 → Extension (only if weak): 6963 → 7045 → 7050+ only if momentum stays clean
Invalidation
Clean 30-min acceptance above 7036; Back below 7030

This is the most common CPI outcome.; Expected number → pop → fade → rotate.; No early shorts. Let it fail first.; 🟢 Secondary Setup — CPI Acceptance Long (Conditional); If CPI high accepts, market is repricing — don’t fight it.; This is not a fade if acceptance is real.; 🟡 Chop / No-Trade Scenario; If price:; • Whipsaws 7010–7036; • Loses delta clarity; • VWAP slices through price repeatedly; 👉 Stand down; CPI chop eats accounts.

Confirmation

  • 1️⃣ Directional candle (no overlap, no dojis)
  • 2️⃣ Delta confirms price (no hero trades)
  • 3️⃣ VWAP aligned with bias
  • 4️⃣ Absorption at 7036 or 7010, not mid-range
  • No chasing CPI candles. No revenge fades.

Mindset

  • CPI already did its job.
  • Now the market shows its hand.
  • Your job is to react, not impress.
  • Stay calm.
  • Keep the baby account closed early — this is headline volatility.
  • Trade later, trade cleaner, trade smarter.

Best window

10–11:00 AM

How it played out

The primary setup never confirmed, so there was no trade.

reached 7030 but never confirmed. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

1/12Cautious / Two-way → Reactive only1/9Bullish while above support → Reactive only1/8Neutral → Reactive1/7Pullback Long