Wednesday 7 January 2026 · /ES · 1HR

1/7 Trade Plan

Bias · Neutral → Reactive at key levels Supply rejection overhead → Gap risk below → Patience over prediction

Key levels

6,970+ — Acceptance opens path to 7,000Resistance

6,963Resistance · → 6,969 — Active supply / rejection zone

6,940Support · → 6,932 — Pivot / gap trigger zone

6,913Support · 20DMA + gap fill (primary long interest)

6,890Support · Deeper demand / failure test

Context

ES pushed cleanly higher yesterday off the 6,940 area and rejected perfectly into the 6,963 supply. That upper band (6,963–6,970) continues to act as active supply, with repeated failures and no sustained acceptance. Until proven otherwise, this is still a two-sided auction. Above 6,970 opens the door to a 7,000 run — but we need acceptance, not just a poke. Below current price, a gap risk remains. A break under 6,932.75 exposes a fast move into 6,913 and the 20DMA — a location of interest, not fear. 👉 Let price come to you.

★ A Setup

Pullback Long

Zone: 6,913 (20DMA) or lower at 6,890
Trigger: Gap fill into 6,913; Absorption + defense on order flow; Delta stabilizes / flips
Target: 6,940 → 6,963
Invalidation: Clean loss below level / failed defense

This is the preferred long. Let the market do the work.

A Setup

Breakdown Short

Zone: Acceptance below 6,932
Trigger: Clean break and failed reclaim of 6,932; Negative delta builds; VWAP overhead
Target: 6,913 → 6,890
Invalidation: Reclaim back above 6,940

Gap logic only works if acceptance holds — otherwise stand down.; 🧩 SMART Confirmation (Required); 1️⃣ Directional candle (no chop); 2️⃣ Delta agrees with price; 3️⃣ VWAP aligned; 4️⃣ Absorption at level — not mid-range; 🚫 No chasing highs. No guessing lows.

Mindset

This is a location-driven day, not a momentum hunt.
Let supply prove itself or let demand defend — don’t force either.
Precision > activity.
Wait for the market to invite you in.

Best window

9:45–11:00 AM

How it played out

Not scored yet. Every plan is checked against what the market actually did, and nothing is edited after the fact.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

1/7Bullish above 6,940 → Reactive at highs