★ Bullish Case
- Target
- 6,990 → 7,006
ES must reclaim and hold above 6,977; Acceptance above prior supply is required — no wick-only pops; Expect retest rejections at these highs. Longs only make sense if acceptance is clean and sustained.
Monday 12 January 2026 · /ES · 1HR
1/12 Trade Plan
Bias · Cautious / Two-way → Reactive only
ATH rejection → Failed continuation → Respect downside rotations
Key levels
7,006Resistance · Extreme extension / unlikely without acceptance
6,990Resistance · Failed breakout / supply
6,977Resistance · Thursday HOD
6,963.75Resistance · Prior Monday high / key failure zone
6,936–6,940Support · Near-term breakdown trigger
6,925Support · Intermediate pause
6,913Support · Gap fill + 20DMA (major decision level)
6,886Support · Deeper demand / extension target
Context
ES tagged ATH and fully rejected overnight, once again failing to produce clean multi-day continuation. This market continues to reward reaction, not prediction. We are now back below 6,990 and below Friday’s long trigger near 6,976, which shifts the tone from momentum to distribution risk. The Monday high at 6,963.75 is a critical decision point — acceptance below it favors continuation lower. Key takeaway: 👉 Upside attempts are being sold. 👉 Downside rotations are faster than upside follow-through.
Bearish Case
- Target
- 6,936 → 6,913 → 6,886
Favorite short below 6,936; Momentum increases quickly into 6,913 (20DMA + gap); Be cautious at the 20DMA — reactions are likely, but acceptance below it opens the door to acceleration.
Confirmation
- 1️⃣ Directional candle (no overlap)
- 2️⃣ Delta confirms price
- 3️⃣ VWAP aligned
- 4️⃣ Absorption shows at the level — not mid-range
- No chasing highsh. No guessing bottoms
Mindset
- This is a failed-breakout environment.
- Patience beats aggression.
- Let levels confirm — don’t fight rotation speed.
- Trade less. Execute cleaner.
- The edge is in waiting for failure, not forcing continuation.
- SPY (1HR
- Between 687 & 691 is quite a difficult zone to read. No real consistency to go off of between here. I would tread lightly. I don't mind looking for the 691 level to turn into a lower high today. Pop & fade into that supply looks valid. The move lower into 687 looks very possible to retest that demand.
- Under 686.38, we have the gap to fill into 684. Below that, we have the 680 major demand.
- Reclaim the 691.66 & we are back towards the ATH.
Best window
10–11:00 AM
How it played out
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