Friday 23 January 2026 · /ES · 30 Min

1/23 Trade Plan

Bias · Neutral → Reactive at structure Consolidation → Reclaim or fail decides direction

Key levels

7,017Resistance · Expansion target

6,976Resistance · 20DMA / trigger level

6,955Resistance · Near-term supply

6,923–6,904Support · Primary demand / must-hold zone

6,866Support · Rotation support

6,800Support · 100DMA / major downside test

Context

Not much has changed — and that’s the signal. We are consolidating above key demand, which means the market is pausing, not resolving. This is a compression environment: 👉 Hold 6,904–6,923 = bulls stay in control 👉 Lose structure / 50DMA = weakness creeps back in 👉 Real upside only comes with a 20DMA reclaim Size stays light until price commits. Market personality: • Balanced trade • False starts likely • Next real move needs acceptance, not hope

★ A+ Setup

Demand Hold Long (Primary)

Zone: 6,923–6,904; Acceptance above 6,976
Trigger: Pullback into demand; Higher low holds; Delta stabilizes → turns positive; VWAP supports price; Clean reclaim + hold; No immediate rejection; Delta expansion; VWAP aligned above price
Target: 6,955 → 6,976 → Extension: 7,017 if acceptance occurs → 7,017
Invalidation: Acceptance below 6,904; Back below 6,955

This is the only clean long inside consolidation.; No mid-range guessing.; 🟢 Secondary Setup — 20DMA Reclaim Long; This is where the next leg starts — or doesn’t.; No chasing late breakouts.

A+ Setup

50DMA Failure Short

Zone: Acceptance below the 50DMA
Trigger: Failed hold of 6,904–6,923; Lower high on retest; Delta turns negative; VWAP caps price
Target: 6,866 → 6,800
Invalidation: Reclaim back above the 50DMA

This is a rotation short, not a panic breakdown.; 🚫 ABSOLUTE RULE — NO EXCEPTIONS; 🍼 Baby account is CLOSED during the morning session.; When you traded less:; ✔ You traded better; ✔ Large accounts grew correctly; ✔ Big R showed up; ✔ Work actually protected you; Morning trading doesn’t sharpen you —; it drains you.

Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional candle (no chop, no overlap)
2️⃣ Delta confirms price
3️⃣ VWAP aligned with bias
4️⃣ Absorption at the level — not mid-range
No overtrading inside the range.

Mindset

This is a wait-for-clarity day.
Consolidation punishes impatience.
Small size.
Fewer clicks.
Let price earn your risk.
And yes — baby account stays closed early.
You already know how this movie ends if you don’t.
SPY (1HR)
No change from yesterday:
The key pullback spot to watch today is between 684.77 & 686. This would be a retest of the Wednesday lows of last week & Tuesday highs. If we can defend that spot, that is a great pullback long.
Below 684.77, we could see some slippage towards the 50DMA again at 681.42 & 679.
Target for now is the gap fill at 691.35. Above that, we run towards the ATH again.

Best window

10–11:00 AM

How it played out

The primary setup never confirmed, so there was no trade.

price never reached 6904. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation, levels shifted +0 from None. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

1/22Higher-Low Long (Primary)1/21Pop & Fade Short (Primary)1/20Pop & Fade at 50DMA (Primary)1/16Higher-Low Long (Primary)