★ Highest Probability
7531 Reclaim Long (20 DMA)
- Trigger
- Acceptance above 7531 followed by a successful retest.
- Target
- 7565 (50 DMA)
- Invalidation
- Failed reclaim back below 7531.
Wednesday 29 July 2026 · /ES (September Contract)
7/29 Trade Plan
Bias · Neutral → Bullish Above 7531 / Bearish Below 7460
Countertrend Bounce Attempt
Key levels
7565Resistance · ⭐ 50 DMA
7531Resistance · ⭐ 20 DMA / Decision Level
7501Resistance · ⭐ Overnight High
7460–7480Support · ⭐ Immediate Support
7439Support · ⭐ Overnight Low
7404–7415Support · ⭐ Major Demand
Context
ES remains in a short-term downtrend but is attempting to stabilize after yesterday's selloff. Overnight, price traded between 7439 and 7501, and we're currently holding just above the 7460–7480 support zone. Buyers need to reclaim the 20 DMA (7531) to shift momentum. Until then, rallies should be treated as recovery attempts rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
Second Opportunity
7438–7460Hold Long
- Trigger
- Pullback into 7438 support followed by responsive buying.
- Target
- 7501 → 7531
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7416
Only If
7501–7531 Rejection Fade
- Trigger
- Price rallies into 7501–7531 and fails to gain acceptance.
- Target
- 7480 → 7439
- Invalidation
- Acceptance above 7531.
Avoid
- Chasing longs below the 20 DMA.
- Shorting the first test of 7460–7480 support.
- Trading the middle of the range without confirmation.
- Assuming the downtrend has ended before 7531 is reclaimed.
Confirmation
- VWAP aligned with trade direction.
- Delta confirms participation through key levels.
- Acceptance holds above reclaimed levels or below failed levels.
- Break-and-retest structure confirms the move.
- No first-touch chasing into major support or resistance.
How it played out
The primary setup never confirmed, so there was no trade.
reached 7531 but never confirmed. Measured from m15 bars, ESU6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
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