★ Highest Probability
7535 Reclaim Long (20 DMA)
- Trigger
- Acceptance above 7535 followed by a successful retest.
- Target
- 7570 → 7578 (50 DMA) → 7600
- Invalidation
- Failed reclaim back below 7535.
Thursday 23 July 2026 · /ES (September Contract)
7/23 Trade Plan
Bias · Neutral → Bullish Above 7535 / Bearish Below 7494
Range Compression
Key levels
7585–7600Resistance · Major Supply
7578Resistance · ⭐ 50 DMA
7535Resistance · ⭐ 20 DMA / Decision Level
7494–7496Support · ⭐ Overnight Low / Intraday Pivot
7472–7496Support · ⭐ Major Demand
7472Support · (FOMC Low)
Context
ES continues to fail the 20 DMA and remains trapped inside a tight range. Price is now sitting directly on yesterday's low and Tuesday's low, making this today's battle zone. Expect liquidity grabs and traps here. Reclaim 7540 and buyers can challenge 7570 again. Lose yesterday's low and 7470 becomes the next objective.
Second Opportunity
7494–7496 Hold Long
- Trigger
- Pullback into 7494–7496 support followed by responsive buying and reclaim.
- Target
- 7535 → 7570
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7494.
Only If
7535 Rejection Fade
- Trigger
- Price rejects 7535 with failed acceptance and sellers regain control.
- Target
- 7496 → 7472
- Invalidation
- Acceptance above 7535.
Avoid
- Chasing longs beneath the 20 DMA.
- Shorting the first test of 7472–7496 demand.
- Trading the middle of the range without confirmation.
- Assuming trend continuation before 7600 is reclaimed.
Confirmation
- VWAP aligned with trade direction.
- Delta confirms participation through reclaimed levels.
- Acceptance holds above 7535 for continuation.
- Break-and-retest structure confirms the move.
- No first-touch chasing into 7578–7600 supply.
How it played out
The primary setup never confirmed, so there was no trade.
reached 7535 but never confirmed. Measured from m15 bars, ESU6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
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