★ Highest Probability
7470–7480 Rejection Short (Supply Fade)
- Trigger
- Rejection from the 7470–7480 supply zone with sellers regaining control.
- Target
- 7415 → 7404
- Invalidation
- Acceptance and hold above 7480.
Friday 24 July 2026 · /ES (September Contract)
7/24 Trade Plan
Bias · Neutral / Range Bound
Compression Inside Established Channel
Key levels
7530–7540Resistance · ⭐ 20 DMA / Recovery Target
7470–7480Resistance · ⭐ Supply / Lower High Formation Area
7415–7404Support · ⭐ Immediate Support / Breakdown Zone
7350–7330Support · ⭐ Major Demand Zone
100Support · DMA Area
Context
ES is currently rotating inside a defined range, with sellers watching the 7470–7480 supply area for a potential lower high while buyers continue defending support near 7404. Price action today will likely depend on whether sellers can reject the upper end of the range or buyers can reclaim resistance and push toward the 20 DMA (7530–7540). Until ES breaks and holds outside the 7480 → 7400 channel, continue treating this as a level-to-level market. Avoid forcing trades in the middle of the range.
Second Opportunity
7480 Break & Hold Long
- Trigger
- Break above 7480 followed by acceptance and a successful retest.
- Target
- 7530–7540 (20 DMA)
- Invalidation
- Failed reclaim back below 7480.
Only If
7404 Breakdown Continuation
- Trigger
- Price loses 7404 and sellers maintain acceptance below support.
- Target
- 7350 → 7330 Demand Zone / 100 DMA
- Invalidation
- Reclaim back above 7404.
Avoid
- Chasing longs into the 7470–7480 supply zone.
- Shorting the first test of 7404 support.
- Trading inside the 7480–7400 channel without confirmation.
- Assuming a breakout before price proves acceptance.
Confirmation
- VWAP aligned with trade direction.
- Delta confirms participation through key levels.
- Acceptance holds above 7480 for upside continuation.
- Break-and-retest structure confirms the move.
- No first-touch chasing into 7470–7480 supply or 7350–7330 demand.
How it played out
The setup triggered, but neither the target nor the invalidation was reached by the close.
triggered, but neither level was reached by the close. Measured from m15 bars, ESU6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
Get tomorrow's plan before the open.
Free, every trading day. Plans go out by email and stay here in the archive.
No signals, no spam. Prefer chat? Join the Discord.