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Tuesday 10 February 2026 · /ES · 1 HR

2/10 Trade Plan

Bias · Neutral → Bullish if structure holds Higher-low test → Continuation only if earned

Key levels

7,030–7,043Resistance · Major upside test / rejection zone
7,030Resistance · Only if 6,981 clears cleanly
6,969–6,981Resistance · Major rejection zone
6,969–6,981Support · Higher-low zone / former supply
6,920Support · Line in the sand
6,870Support · 100DMA / downside magnet if 6,920 fails
20Support · & 50 DMA — Pullback buy candidates

Context

We’re at an important decision area. The 6,969–6,981 zone is now the referee. If this area holds as a higher low, ES has a real shot to continue higher. This is not a chase environment. It’s a pullback & prove-it market. Key idea today: 👉 Hold above prior resistance = continuation 👉 Lose 6,920 = rotation back to the 100DMA 👉 Until then, stay patient and trade reactions

★ A+ Setup

Higher-Low Continuation Long (Primary)

Zone
6,969–6,981 or 20/50DMA pullback; Acceptance below 6,920; 7,030–7,043
Trigger
Pullback holds above 6,969; No acceptance below 6,920; Buyers defend structure; Delta stabilizes / turns positive; VWAP supports price; Loss of 6,920; Failed reclaim; Lower high on retest; Delta flips negative; VWAP caps price; Push into supply; Immediate rejection; Absorption at highs; Delta divergence
Target
7,030 → Extension: 7,043 → 6,870 (100DMA) → 6,981 → 6,969
Invalidation
Acceptance below 6,920; Reclaim back above 6,920; Clean acceptance above 7,043

This is a structure long, not a breakout chase.; Let price come to you.; 🔴 Secondary Setup — Failure & Rotation Short (Conditional); No shorts into support.; This only activates if structure clearly breaks.; 🟡 Rejection Fade — Upper Supply Short; Fade the reaction, not the number.

Confirmation

  • 1️⃣ Directional candle (no chop, no overlap)
  • 2️⃣ Delta confirms direction
  • 3️⃣ VWAP aligned
  • 4️⃣ Reaction at the level, not mid-range
  • No mid-range boredom trades

Mindset

  • This is a professional patience day.
  • Above 6,969 → stay constructive.
  • Below 6,920 → flip the script.
  • In between → do nothing and feel good about it.
  • The market will show its hand.
  • Your job is to not flinch before it does.
  • SPY (30Min)
  • The 50DMA & Thursday PMH at 687.50 is now a very key spot to be watching. That hold early morning was the key for upside intra-day.
  • We are now above the 693/694 previous rejection zone. If we see this turn into new lows today, we are going to ATH on SPY towards that 698/700 high.
  • I would only look for short side here if we fail PDL & the 50DMA for a downside move into 684

Best window

10–11:00 AM

How it played out

The primary setup never confirmed, so there was no trade.

price never reached 6969. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, touch-based invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

2/9Neutral → Reactive at extremes2/6100DMA Reclaim Long (Primary)2/5Breakdown Below 100DMA (Primary)2/4Pop & Fade Short (Primary)