Thursday 5 February 2026 · /ES · 15 Min

2/5 Trade Plan

Bias · Neutral → Reactive only Choppy channel, fake edges, patience wins

Key levels

7,030–7,043Resistance · Stretch targets only (don’t count on it)

6,969–6,981Resistance · 20DMA / heavy supply

6,886Support · Minor reaction level

6,868–6,863Support · 100DMA (major decision zone)

6,846Support · Breakdown acceleration level

6,814Support · January balance

6,770Support · January lows / real downside

Shorting into the 100DMA is dumb money behavior.Resistance

Longing off the 100DMA without confirmation is hopeful money behavior.Resistance

🟡 Environment Read (Important)Resistance

Neither pays consistently.Resistance

Let price prove something.Resistance

Context

This tape is… rough. Yesterday’s move lower was clean, but let’s not pretend anything actually broke. ES is still stuck in a range, just wearing a slightly uglier outfit. Notable: • ES is outperforming NQ • XLP going vertical = defensive tone • Channel remains intact • Edge is thin, traps are thick This is not a “be a hero” environment. This is a wait-for-the-market-to-show-its-hand environment.

★ A+ Setup

Breakdown Below 100DMA (Primary)

Zone: Acceptance below 6,863; 6,868–6,863; Acceptance above 50DMA → 6,969
Trigger: Clean break of 100DMA; Failed reclaim; Momentum expands; Delta stays negative; Strong rejection wicks; Absorption at lows; Delta stabilizes; No follow-through selling; Reclaim of 50DMA; Continuation through 6,969; Strong closes, no upper wicks
Target: 6,846 → 6,814 → Extension: 6,770 (only if tape accelerates) → 6,886 → 6,925 (maybe) → 6,981 → Extension: 7,030 (only with momentum)
Invalidation: Acceptance back above 6,868; Clean break below 6,863; Loss of 6,950 area

This is the only downside trade I care about.; No chop shorts. No early entries.; 🟢 Secondary Setup — Channel Low Reaction Long (Low Conviction); This is tactical, quick, and size-light.; If it feels forced — it is.; 🟢 Best Long Scenario — Reclaim Strength (Cleanest Bull Case); This is the only long I’d actually like.; Everything else is noise.

Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional candles (no overlap garbage)
2️⃣ Delta agrees
3️⃣ VWAP aligned
4️⃣ Trade at levels, not boredom zones
If it’s mid-range → do nothing. That is the trade.

Mindset

This market is baiting activity.
Your edge is selectivity, not participation.
No forcing trades.
No saving bad ideas.
Let others bleed in chop.
You show up when the market earns it.
SPY (15 Min)
681.76/682 lows are big here. If we see fails below, we should pick up the downside pressure into the 680 & possibly the Jan lows at 676. This would also be the 100DMA level.
As of now, we are reclaiming the Tuesday LOD at 684. If we hold that, we stay higher possibly towards the channel high. Really no direction on SPY here.

Best window

10–11:00 AM

How it played out

Not scored yet. Every plan is checked against what the market actually did, and nothing is edited after the fact.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

2/4Pop & Fade Short (Primary)2/3Pullback Continuation Long (Primary)2/2Pullback Long (Primary)1/30Reclaim & Continuation Long