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Monday 2 February 2026 · /ES · 15 Min

2/2 Trade Plan

Bias · Neutral → Lean bullish above key reclaims DMA defense → Reclaim & rotate → Fade strength, not weakness

Key levels

6,994–7,002Resistance · 20DMA / psychological 7,000 supply
6,966Resistance · Interim resistance
6,898–6,918Support · Friday lows / 50DMA / primary long zone
6,863–6,847Support · 100DMA / major downside defense

Context

Overnight did its job: clean move down into the 100DMA at 6,863, and buyers showed up exactly where they should. This morning’s key development: 👉 Reclaim of Friday lows + 50DMA above 6,918 That reclaim matters. As long as ES holds above it, shorting back into Thurs/Fri lows is low-quality thinking. We are still inside the Thurs–Friday channel, which means: • Rotations > trends • Reactions > predictions • Pop & fade setups > breakdown chasing Let price come to levels.

★ A+ Setup

Pullback Long (Primary)

Zone
6,898–6,918
Trigger
Controlled pullback into demand; Buyers defend the 50DMA; Delta stabilizes or flips positive; VWAP holds below price or flattens
Target
6,966 → 6,994 → Stretch: 7,002 if momentum builds
Invalidation
Acceptance below 6,898

This is the cleanest trade today if we stay above the reclaim.; No breakdown = no short.

A+ Setup

Pop & Fade Short (Conditional)

Zone
6,994–7,002; Acceptance below 6,898
Trigger
Push into supply; Immediate rejection or failed acceptance; Delta divergence / absorption at highs; VWAP caps price from below; Failed reclaim of 50DMA; Lower high forms; Delta turns negative; VWAP above price
Target
6,966 → 6,918 → 6,863 (100DMA) → Extension: 6,847
Invalidation
Clean acceptance above 7,002; Reclaim back above 6,898

Fade strength, not lows.; This is where risk/reward flips.; 🟡 Breakdown Short (Only If Structure Fails); This is conditional, not the base case.

Confirmation

  • 1️⃣ Directional candle (no chop, no overlap)
  • 2️⃣ Delta confirms price
  • 3️⃣ VWAP aligned with trade direction
  • 4️⃣ Absorption at the level, not mid-range
  • No chasing. No impatience trades.

Mindset

  • The market already told you where real buyers live.
  • Respect that.
  • Trade reactions.
  • Fade excess.
  • One clean idea > five forced ones.
  • And yeah — baby account stays CLOSED early.
  • You already know how this movie ends when you ignore that.
  • Stay sharp.
  • SPY (15 Min)
  • The golden zone on SPY continues to hold. We briefly broke below it overnight and have since reclaimed back above. We’re now back over Thursday’s and Friday’s lows from last week.
  • I’d be cautious shorting back into those lows today — odds favor more rotation inside the SPY channel. A move toward the midpoint near the 20DMA around 690.50 is possible.
  • The middle of this range is low-quality trade territory. Best to stay patient and avoid forcing anything in between.

Best window

10–11:00 AM

How it played out

The primary setup never confirmed, so there was no trade.

price never reached 6898. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation, levels shifted +0 from None. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.

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Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

1/30Reclaim & Continuation Long1/29Pullback Long (Primary)1/28Pullback Long (Primary)1/27Pullback Long (Primary)