Wednesday 4 February 2026 · /ES · 15 Min

2/4 Trade Plan

Bias · Neutral → Lean Bearish at supply 20DMA test → Reaction > direction

Key levels

7,030–7,043Resistance · Upper supply / stretch targets only

6,969–6,981Resistance · 20DMA / rejection zone

6,918–6,898Support · Near-term support / decision zone

6,863–6,847Support · 100DMA / major downside magnet

Context

We are trading back up into the 20DMA, which puts ES at a decision point — not a chase zone. This is a reaction environment, not a momentum environment. Primary idea: 👉 Watch how price behaves into the 6,970–6,980 zone 👉 Failure = rotation lower 👉 Reclaim = upside opens, but only with acceptance Market personality: • Push into moving averages • Stall / reject at known supply • Clean rotations when levels fail Price action at the 20DMA decides the session.

★ A+ Setup

Pop & Fade Short (Primary)

Zone: 6,969–6,981; Acceptance above 6,981; Acceptance below 6,900
Trigger: Push into 20DMA; Momentum stalls; Rejection wicks form; Delta flips negative; VWAP caps price; Hold above 6,981; Strong closes, no upper wicks; Delta stays positive; VWAP flips supportive; Failure of near-term support; Acceleration lower; No responsive buying
Target: 6,920 (50DMA area) → Extension: 6,898 → If weakness builds: 6,863 (100DMA) → 7,030 → Extension: 7,043 (only if momentum expands) → 6,863 → 6,847
Invalidation: Clean acceptance above 6,981; Loss of 6,969; Reclaim back above 6,900

This is the highest-quality idea today.; Do not short late — let price come into you.; 🟢 Secondary Setup — Reclaim Long (Conditional); This is a reclaim trade, not a breakout chase.; If acceptance is sloppy — skip it.; 🔴 Downside Continuation — Breakdown Play; Don’t front-run this. Let the market show weakness first.

Confirmation

1️⃣ Directional candles (no chop)
2️⃣ Delta confirms direction
3️⃣ VWAP aligned with trade
4️⃣ Rejection or acceptance at levels, not mid-range
No mid-range trades. No boredom clicks.

Mindset

This is a patience day.
Let the 20DMA speak first.
One clean trade is enough.
If structure is unclear — stand down.
Trade reactions.
Ignore noise.
SPY (15 Min)
Holding this area again... 50DMA also stepping up down there. Tough spot to break below for now. I would be interested to see what happens as we trade higher into the Friday high & the intra-day rejection spot between 693.43/694.21.

Best window

10–11:00 AM

How it played out

The primary setup triggered and reached its first target.

triggered, then reached 6920. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.

Get tomorrow's plan before the open.

Free, every trading day. Plans go out by email and stay here in the archive.

No signals, no spam. Prefer chat? Join the Discord.

Drawn with

RAIN High-Probability Reaction Levels$30 →RAIN Break & Retest Footprint (ES)$50 →

Earlier plans

2/3Pullback Continuation Long (Primary)2/2Pullback Long (Primary)1/30Reclaim & Continuation Long 1/29Pullback Long (Primary)