★ Highest Probability
7720 Reclaim Long
- Trigger
- Reclaim 7720–7724 and hold above it with responsive buying/acceptance.
- Target
- 7756–7764
- Invalidation
- Acceptance back below 7698.
Friday 21 August 2026 · /ES (September Contract)
8/21 Trade Plan
Bias · Neutral → Bearish Below 7720
Recovery Attempt After Sell-Off
Key levels
7794–7800Resistance
7764.58Resistance
7739.50Resistance · ⭐ Previous ATH
7718Support · ⭐ Key Support
7648.75–7632Support
7583.51Support · 50 DMA
Context
ES sold off yesterday, found support around 7657–7670, and has bounced back toward the first resistance zone. Price is currently 7695, just below 7698–7724. This is the decision area. Reclaim 7698 → 7724 → 7756–7764 Reject 7698 → 7648–7632 Keep it simple: we're looking for the market to prove whether this is a recovery or just a bounce inside yesterday's sell-off.
Second Opportunity
7720 Rejection Short
- Trigger
- Continued rejection at 7698–7724, followed by a clean break and retest below 7698.
- Target
- 7648 → 7632
- Invalidation
- Reclaim above 7724.
Only If
7632–7650 Support Long
- Trigger
- Deeper pullback into 7632–7650 / 20DMA support with responsive buying and a reclaim.
- Target
- 7698 → 7720–7724
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7632.
Avoid
- Chasing longs underneath 7720 without confirmation.
- Shorting directly into 7632–7650 support.
- Forcing trades between 7698–7724 without confirmation.
- Treating a hold of the 20DMA as bullish continuation without a 7720 reclaim.
Focus · if → then
- 7650 / 20 DMA holds → look for reclaims.
- 7720 reclaims → upside toward 7760.
- 7720 rejects → rotation back toward 7650.
- 7632 fails → downside toward 7570.
Today's reminder
Support holding is not enough. We need the reclaim.
How it played out
The primary setup never confirmed, so there was no trade.
reached 7720 but never confirmed. Measured from m15 bars, ESU6, confirm entry, touch-based invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
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