★ Highest Probability
7800 Retest Long
- Trigger
- Pullback into 7800 holds with responsive buying.
- Target
- 7820 → 7840
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7794.
Monday 17 August 2026 · /ES (September Contract)
8/17 Trade Plan
Bias · Bullish Above 7800
Pullback / Lower-High Test
Key levels
7840Resistance · ⭐ Upside Target
7820Resistance · ⭐ Reclaim Level
7800Support · ⭐ Primary Demand
7794Support · ⭐ Line in the Sand
7740Support · ⭐ Major Demand
Context
ES is testing the 7720 supply after pulling back from the highs. The key now is whether buyers can reclaim 7820 and turn that area into a higher low. If we reclaim and hold 7820, the path opens back toward 7840. If buyers fail and 7794 breaks, the structure weakens and the market can rotate back toward 7740 demand. 7794 is the line in the sand.
Second Opportunity
7820 Reclaim Long
- Trigger
- Acceptance above 7820 followed by a successful retest.
- Target
- 7840
- Invalidation
- Failed reclaim back below 7820.
Only If
7794 Failure Short
- Trigger
- Clean break below 7794 followed by a failed retest.
- Target
- 7740
- Invalidation
- Reclaim above 7794.
Avoid
- Chasing directly into 7840.
- Shorting while 7794–7800 continues to hold.
- Trading the middle of the 7800–7820 structure without confirmation.
Focus · if → then
- 7800 holds → look for 7820 → 7840.
- 7820 reclaims and holds → continuation higher.
- 7794 fails → downside opens toward 7740.
Today's reminder
7820 is the reclaim. 7794 is the line in the sand. Let price prove which side wins.
How it played out
The primary setup never confirmed, so there was no trade.
reached 7800 but never confirmed. Measured from m15 bars, ESU6, confirm entry, touch-based invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
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