★ Highest Probability
7648.75 Break & Hold Long
- Trigger
- Acceptance above 7648.75.
- Target
- 7677–7686 → 7739
- Invalidation
- Failed reclaim below 7648.75.
Tuesday 4 August 2026 · /ES (September Contract)
8/4 Trade Plan
Bias · Bullish
Trend Continuation
Key levels
7739Resistance · ⭐ All-Time High
7677–7686Resistance · ⭐ Supply
7648.75Resistance · ⭐ Breakout Level
7632Support · ⭐ Immediate Support
7563Support · ⭐ Major Pullback Zone
Context
Yesterday's move changed the structure. ES reclaimed the 50 DMA and expanded straight into the 7632 objective. As long as 7632 holds, buyers remain in control. Above 7648.75, there is little resistance until 7677–7686. Above that, the next major objective is the 7739 all-time high. Because of yesterday's vertical move, there isn't a clean pullback yet. Let today's higher low develop instead of forcing dip buys.
Second Opportunity
7632 Hold Long
- Trigger
- Pullback holds 7632 and buyers reclaim.
- Target
- 7648.75 → 7677
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7632.
Only If
7648.75 Rejection Fade
- Trigger
- Clear rejection at 7648.75.
- Target
- 7632
- Invalidation
- Acceptance above 7648.75.
Avoid
- Chasing extended breakout candles.
- Buying random pullbacks without a higher low.
- Fighting the trend while above 7632.
Focus · if → then
- 7632 holds → buyers remain in control.
- 7648.75 breaks → target 7677–7686.
- 7677–7686 clears → opens the path toward 7739.
- Lose 7632 → wait for a new higher low before buying again.
Today's reminder
Strong trends don't require predicting tops. Respect support, wait for confirmation, and let higher lows come to you.
How it played out
The primary setup never confirmed, so there was no trade.
price never reached 7648.75. Measured from m15 bars, ESU6, confirm entry, close beyond the level invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
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