★ Prime Setup
7540 Hold & Reclaim Long
- Trigger
- Pullback into 7540–7524 followed by responsive buying
- Target
- 7600 → 7632 ATH
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7524
Monday 15 June 2026 · /ES
6/15 Trade Plan
Bias · Bullish Above 7540 / Trend Continuation
20DMA Reclaim / ATH Retest
Key levels
7632Resistance · ATH ⭐
7600Resistance · ONH
7540–7524Support · ⭐
7483Support · (20DMA) ⭐
7455–7450Support
7289Support · (50DMA)
Blue Skies AboveResistance
Context
ES has completed a strong recovery from last week's lows, reclaiming the 20DMA and pushing back toward ATH territory. Overnight buyers continued the move higher, printing an overnight high at 7600 before consolidating near 7590. The key shift is that ES is now trading above the 20DMA at 7483. What was resistance has become support. As long as buyers defend the 7540–7524 area, the path remains open toward the ATH at 7632. Today's auction is simple: hold above the reclaimed 20DMA structure and continue higher, or lose it and rotate back into the prior range.
A-Tier Setup
7483 (20DMA) Retest Long
- Trigger
- Flush into the 20DMA followed by reclaim
- Target
- 7540 → 7600
- Invalidation
- Acceptance below 7483
B-Tier Setup
7632 ATH Rejection Fade
- Trigger
- Failure to accept above ATH after breakout attempt
- Target
- 7600 → 7540
- Invalidation
- Acceptance above 7632
Avoid
- Chasing longs directly into ATH resistance
- Shorting above the 20DMA without confirmation
- Trading the middle of the range between 7540 and 7600
- Assuming breakout continuation before acceptance above ATH
Confirmation
- VWAP aligned above 7540
- Delta confirms continuation through 7540
- Acceptance above reclaimed 20DMA structure
- Break-and-retest holds at 7540–7524
- No first-touch chasing into 7600–7632 liquidity
- Acceptance above 7632 opens the path for further price discovery
- SPY 5MIN
- Would love to see a retest of some last week highs between 744.44/745.34. This would be back to Monday highs, Friday highs & the major structure from Tuesday. Love that spot for new longs if we get it. That is also the 20DMA, a lot of confluences there. If we break over 751.55, we likely run into the 755 supply. Below 744.44, we would look for the gap fill at 742.50. Below 742.50, sellers would get more aggressive into the 738 demand.
How it played out
The setup triggered, but neither the target nor the invalidation was reached by the close.
triggered, but neither level was reached by the close. Measured from m15 bars, ESM6, confirm entry, touch-based invalidation. Not a fill, and not a return: see how this is measured.
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