NEW INDICATOR ALERT — SHOP TRADING TOOLS NOW
8/18 Trade Plan
8/18/20262 min read
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⚡ Trade Plan
Ticker: /ES (September Contract)
Bias: Neutral → Bearish Below 7718
Market Condition: Failed Breakout / Pullback
🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.
🧭 Context
ES failed to hold the 7800 breakout, leaving trapped buyers above that level. Price is now back near 7718.75, with a brief pierce already occurring.
This is the key decision point. Hold 7718 and reclaim 7800 → bullish. Lose 7718 and confirm the retest → downside opens toward 7650 and the 20 DMA at 7638.69.
The cleaner opportunity may be the deeper pullback into 7650–7638, where the previous ATH and 20 DMA converge.
📊 Key Levels
🟥 Resistance
7800 ⭐ Failed Breakout / Major Supply
🟩 Support
7718.75 ⭐ Key Pivot
7650 ⭐ Previous ATH / Pullback Demand
7638.69 ⭐ 20 DMA
7632 ⭐ Deeper Support
⭐ Highest Probability — 7718.75 Failure Short
Trigger: Break below 7718.75 followed by a failed retest from underneath.
Target: 7650 → 7638.69
Invalidation: Reclaim above 7718.75.
🟢 Second Opportunity — 7650–7638.69 Pullback Long
Trigger: Price reaches 7650–7638.69, finds responsive buying, and reclaims the zone.
Target: 7718.75 → 7800
Invalidation: Acceptance below 7632.
🟡 Only If — 7800 Reclaim Long
Trigger: Acceptance back above 7800 followed by a successful retest.
Target: New ATH / continuation higher.
Invalidation: Failed reclaim back below 7800.
🔴 Avoid
Chasing shorts directly into 7650–7638 demand.
Assuming the brief pierce below 7718 automatically means breakdown.
Buying aggressively while price remains trapped below 7800.
Fighting the downside if 7718 breaks and retests cleanly.
🎯 Focus
7718 holds → watch for a reclaim of 7800.
7718 fails → downside opens toward 7650 → 7638.69.
7650–7638 holds → look for the higher-quality long.
7800 reclaims → bullish structure returns.
Today's Reminder: 7718 is the decision point. If it fails, let the market fill the move toward 7650 before looking for the long.
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