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7/29 Trade Plan
7/29/20262 min read
🚨 NEW INDICATOR ALERT
👉 Learn more about High-Probability Reaction Levels
⚡ Trade Plan
Ticker: /ES (September Contract)
Bias: Neutral → Bullish Above 7531 / Bearish Below 7460
Market Condition: Countertrend Bounce Attempt
🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.
🧭 Context
ES remains in a short-term downtrend but is attempting to stabilize after yesterday's selloff. Overnight, price traded between 7439 and 7501, and we're currently holding just above the 7460–7480 support zone. Buyers need to reclaim the 20 DMA (7531) to shift momentum. Until then, rallies should be treated as recovery attempts rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
📊 Key Levels
🟥 Resistance
7501 ⭐ Overnight High
7531 ⭐ 20 DMA / Decision Level
7565 ⭐ 50 DMA
🟩 Support
7460–7480 ⭐ Immediate Support
7439 ⭐ Overnight Low
7404–7415 ⭐ Major Demand
⭐ Highest Probability — 7531 Reclaim Long (20 DMA)
Trigger: Acceptance above 7531 followed by a successful retest.
Target: 7565 (50 DMA)
Invalidation: Failed reclaim back below 7531.
🟢 Second Opportunity — 7438–7460Hold Long
Trigger: Pullback into 7438 support followed by responsive buying.
Target: 7501 → 7531
Invalidation: Acceptance below 7416
🟡 Only If — 7501–7531 Rejection Fade
Trigger: Price rallies into 7501–7531 and fails to gain acceptance.
Target: 7480 → 7439
Invalidation: Acceptance above 7531.
🔴 Avoid
Chasing longs below the 20 DMA.
Shorting the first test of 7460–7480 support.
Trading the middle of the range without confirmation.
Assuming the downtrend has ended before 7531 is reclaimed.
🧩 RAIN Confirmation
🟣 VWAP aligned with trade direction.
🟣 Delta confirms participation through key levels.
🟣 Acceptance holds above reclaimed levels or below failed levels.
🟣 Break-and-retest structure confirms the move.
🟣 No first-touch chasing into major support or resistance.
Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.
Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template
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