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7/28 Trade Plan
7/28/20262 min read
🚨 NEW INDICATOR ALERT
👉 Learn more about High-Probability Reaction Levels
⚡ Trade Plan
Ticker: /ES (September Contract)
Bias: Bearish Until Key Levels Are Reclaimed
Market Condition: Breakdown Into Major Support
🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.
🧭 Context
Yesterday's selloff changed the structure. ES dropped from 7515 to 7414, breaking below both the 20 DMA (7533) and 50 DMA (7566). Overnight, buyers defended the 7419–7414 support zone, but price remains well beneath overhead resistance. Until the market reclaims 7468–7479 and eventually the 20 DMA, rallies should be treated as countertrend bounces inside a bearish structure.
📊 Key Levels
🟥 Resistance
7468–7479 ⭐ First Resistance
7524 ⭐ Overnight High
7533 ⭐ 20 DMA
7566 ⭐ 50 DMA
🟩 Support
7419–7414 ⭐ Overnight Low / Immediate Demand
7330–7354 ⭐ Major Demand
7339 ⭐ 100 DMA
7238–7253 ⭐ Final Major Support
7259 ⭐ 200 DMA
⭐ Highest Probability — 7468–7479 Rejection Fade
Trigger: Price rallies into 7468–7479 and fails to gain acceptance.
Target: 7419 → 7414
Invalidation: Acceptance above 7479.
🟢 Second Opportunity — 7414–7419 Hold Long
Trigger: Buyers defend 7414–7419 with responsive buying and a reclaim back above support.
Target: 7468 → 7479
Invalidation: Acceptance below 7414.
🟡 Only If — 7533 (20 DMA) Reclaim Long
Trigger: Price reclaims the 20 DMA (7533) with acceptance after clearing 7468–7479.
Target: 7566 (50 DMA)
Invalidation: Failed reclaim back below 7533.
🔴 Avoid
Chasing longs into 7468–7479 resistance.
Assuming the trend has reversed while price remains below the 20 DMA.
Shorting the first touch of 7414–7419 support.
Trading the middle of the range without confirmation.
🧩 RAIN Confirmation
🟣 VWAP aligned with trade direction.
🟣 Delta confirms participation through key levels.
🟣 Acceptance holds above reclaimed levels or below failed levels.
🟣 Break-and-retest structure confirms the move.
🟣 No first-touch chasing into major support or resistance.
Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.
Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template
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