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7/22 Trade Plan
7/22/20262 min read
🚨 NEW INDICATOR ALERT
These High-Probability Reaction Levels automatically identify the key areas we analyze every morning:
✅ Liquidity reaction zones
✅ 20 / 50 / 100 / 200 Daily SMA levels
✅ Previous Day High & Low
✅ Market structure confluence areas
Instead of manually drawing levels, RAIN maps the areas where price is most likely to make decisions — helping you focus on where the market matters before the move happens.
👉 Learn more about High-Probability Reaction Levels
⚡ Trade Plan
Ticker: /ES (September Contract)
Bias: Neutral → Bullish Above 7527
Market Condition: Rotation Below Key Moving Averages
🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.
🧭 Context
Not much has changed from yesterday. ES remains below the 20 DMA (7532.99) after rejecting the 50 DMA (7579.25), keeping short-term pressure on the market. Overnight traded both extremes (ONH: 7545.00 | ONL: 7504.50) and is now rotating near the middle of the range.
The key remains the 20 DMA. A reclaim shifts momentum back to the bulls. Continued rejection keeps the focus on a move back toward overnight lows and lower support.
📊 Key Levels
🟥 Resistance
7533 ⭐ 20 DMA / Decision Level
7545 ⭐ Overnight High (ONH)
7579 ⭐ 50 DMA / Major Resistance
🟩 Support
7505 ⭐ Overnight Low (ONL)
7500 Psychological Support
Below ONL = Opens Door for Further Weakness
⭐ Highest Probability — 7533 Reclaim Long (20 DMA)
Trigger: Acceptance above the 20 DMA (7533) followed by a successful retest.
Target: 7545 (ONH) → 7579 (50 DMA)
Invalidation: Failed reclaim back below the 20 DMA.
🟢 Second Opportunity — 7505 Hold Long (ONL)
Trigger: Pullback into the Overnight Low followed by responsive buying and reclaim.
Target: 7533 (20 DMA) → 7545 (ONH)
Invalidation: Acceptance below 7505.
🟡 Only If — 7505 Breakdown Short
Trigger: Acceptance below the Overnight Low with sellers maintaining control.
Target: 7500 → Range extension lower
Invalidation: Reclaim back above 7505.
🔴 Avoid
Chasing longs below the 20 DMA (7533).
Shorting the first test of 7505 without confirmation.
Trading in the middle of the overnight range (7505–7533) without confirmation.
Assuming the trend has changed until the 20 DMA is reclaimed.
🧩 RAIN Confirmation
🟣 VWAP aligned with trade direction.
🟣 Delta confirms participation through reclaimed levels.
🟣 Acceptance holds above 7533 for continuation.
🟣 Break-and-retest structure confirms the move.
🟣 Watch for confluence between the 20 DMA, ONH/ONL, and liquidity reaction levels before committing to a trade.
Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.
Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template
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