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7/9 Trade Plan

7/9/20262 min read

⚡ Trade Plan

Ticker: /ES (September Contract)

Bias: Neutral Until Range Break

Market Condition: Balance / Compression

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

ES remains trapped inside a well-defined balance area, trading between major support at 7472–7496 and major resistance at 7585–7600. Price is currently compressed between the 20 DMA (7521) below and the 50 DMA (7556) above, creating a lower-probability environment for trend trades.

Today's battlefield is simple: buyers need to reclaim VWAP and the overnight high to regain momentum. If sellers lose the overnight low, the path opens back toward the FOMC support zone. Until then, expect rotation—not expansion.

📊 Key Levels

🟥 Resistance

7539–7540 ⭐ VWAP / 21 EMA
7556 ⭐ Overnight High / 50 DMA
7585–7600 Major Supply

🟩 Support

7515 ⭐ Overnight Low
7500–7496
7472 ⭐ FOMC Low

⭐ Prime Setup — 7472 Hold Long

Trigger: Pullback into the FOMC low followed by responsive buying and reclaim.

Target: 7496 → 7521

Invalidation: Acceptance below 7472.

🟢 A+ Setup — 7521 / 50 DMA Reclaim Long

Trigger: Acceptance above the 20 DMA followed by a successful reclaim of the 50 DMA.

Target: 7583 → 7600

Invalidation: Failed reclaim back below 7521.

Why it matters: Reclaiming both moving averages shifts momentum back in favor of buyers and increases the odds of a move back toward last week's highs.

🟡 B-Tier Setup — 7521–7552 Rejection Fade

Trigger: Price rallies into the moving averages but fails to gain acceptance.

Target: 7496 → 7472

Invalidation: Acceptance above the 50 DMA.

🔴 Avoid

Chasing longs directly into the 20 DMA or 50 DMA.
Shorting first touch into the 7472 FOMC low.
Assuming the trend has turned bullish before reclaiming the moving averages.
Trading the middle of the range without confirmation.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

🟣 VWAP aligned with trade direction

🟣 Delta confirms participation through 7496 and the moving averages

🟣 Acceptance above reclaimed levels

🟣 Break-and-retest structure holds

🟣 No first-touch chasing into the 20 DMA / 50 DMA resistance

🪞 SPX / SPY Alignment

SPX and SPY continue to mirror ES, trading inside the same broader consolidation. Neither index has confirmed a breakout or breakdown, reinforcing the expectation of patience until the market chooses direction.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.