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7/8 Trade Plan

7/8/20262 min read

⚡ Trade Plan

Ticker: /ES (September Contract)

Bias: Neutral → Bullish Above 7496

Market Condition: Pullback Into Major Support

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

ES pulled back overnight into the 7472 FOMC low, finding buyers once again before bouncing into the open. Price remains below both the 20 DMA (7521) and 50 DMA (7552), meaning buyers still have work to do before regaining control. The immediate objective is reclaiming 7496, while failure at the FOMC low shifts the market back into a corrective phase.

📊 Key Levels

🟥 Resistance

7496 ⭐ First Reclaim Level
7521 (20 DMA)
7552 (50 DMA)
7583–7588 Yesterday's High

🟩 Support

7472 ⭐ FOMC Low / Overnight Low
7415–7404
7354–7330

⭐ Prime Setup — 7472 Hold Long

Trigger: Pullback into the FOMC low followed by responsive buying and reclaim.

Target: 7496 → 7521

Invalidation: Acceptance below 7472.

🟢 A+ Setup — 7521 / 50 DMA Reclaim Long

Trigger: Acceptance above the 20 DMA followed by a successful reclaim of the 50 DMA.

Target: 7583 → 7600

Invalidation: Failed reclaim back below 7521.

Why it matters: Reclaiming both moving averages shifts momentum back in favor of buyers and increases the odds of a move back toward last week's highs.

🟡 B-Tier Setup — 7521–7552 Rejection Fade

Trigger: Price rallies into the moving averages but fails to gain acceptance.

Target: 7496 → 7472

Invalidation: Acceptance above the 50 DMA.

🔴 Avoid

Chasing longs directly into the 20 DMA or 50 DMA.
Shorting first touch into the 7472 FOMC low.
Assuming the trend has turned bullish before reclaiming the moving averages.
Trading the middle of the range without confirmation.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

🟣 VWAP aligned with trade direction

🟣 Delta confirms participation through 7496 and the moving averages

🟣 Acceptance above reclaimed levels

🟣 Break-and-retest structure holds

🟣 No first-touch chasing into the 20 DMA / 50 DMA resistance

🪞 SPX / SPY Alignment

SPX and SPY are showing the same structure—holding near major support after losing their short-term moving averages. The broader uptrend isn't broken, but buyers need to reclaim resistance before momentum can resume. Until then, expect a reaction-driven market.

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