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7/6 Trade Plan

7/6/20262 min read

⚡ Trade Plan

Ticker: /ES (September Contract)

Bias: Neutral → Bullish Above 7596

Market Condition: Consolidation Above Moving Averages

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

After the holiday weekend, ES opens back inside the same consolidation range. Price continues holding above both the 20 DMA (7521) and 50 DMA (7543), keeping the intermediate trend constructive. The market is compressing between 7491–7512 support and the 7585–7596 supply zone, with today's focus on whether buyers can finally break overhead resistance or continue rotating within the range.

📊 Key Levels

🟥 Resistance

7574 Overnight High
7585–7596 ⭐ Major Supply
7648 ATH

🟩 Support

7491–7512 ⭐ Primary Demand
7521 (20 DMA)
7543 (50 DMA)

⭐ Prime Setup — 7491–7512 Hold Long

Trigger: Pullback into demand followed by responsive buying and reclaim.

Target: 7574 → 7596

Invalidation: Acceptance below 7491.

🟢 A+ Setup — 7596 Breakout Long

Trigger: Acceptance above the 7585–7596 supply followed by a successful retest.

Target: 7648 (ATH)

Invalidation: Failed reclaim back below 7585.

Why it matters: This clears the multi-session resistance zone and signals buyers are ready to resume the larger uptrend.

🟡 B-Tier Setup — 7585–7596 Rejection Fade

Trigger: Price pushes into supply and fails to gain acceptance.

Target: 7543 → 7521

Invalidation: Acceptance above 7596.

🔴 Avoid

Chasing longs directly into 7585–7596 resistance.
Shorting first touch into 7491–7512 support.
Trading the middle of the range without confirmation.
Assuming a breakout before buyers establish acceptance above resistance.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

🟣 VWAP aligned with trade direction

🟣 Delta confirms participation through key levels

🟣 Acceptance above reclaimed levels

🟣 Break-and-retest structure holds

🟣 No first-touch chasing into 7585–7596 liquidity

🪞 SPX / SPY Alignment

SPX and SPY continue to reflect the same structure as ES—holding above key moving averages while trading just beneath major resistance. The broader trend remains bullish, but confirmation requires acceptance above recent highs rather than another rejection.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.