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7/21 Trade Plan

7/21/20262 min read

⚡ Trade Plan

Ticker: /ES (September Contract)

Bias: Neutral → Bullish Above 7527

Market Condition: Rotation Below Key Moving Averages

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

ES continues to trade inside the same rotational range after defending the 7472–7496 demand zone. Buyers reclaimed 7496, but the rally stalled at the 20 DMA (7527) overnight. 7527 is the decision level. Reclaim it, and buyers can challenge the 50 DMA (7580). Fail here, and expect another rotation back toward range support.

📊 Key Levels

🟥 Resistance

7527 ⭐ 20 DMA / Decision Level
7580 ⭐ 50 DMA
7585–7598 Major Supply

🟩 Support

7496 ⭐ Intraday Pivot
7473–7470 ⭐ Overnight Double Bottom / Major Demand
7472 (FOMC Low)

⭐ Highest Probability — 7540 Reclaim Long (20 DMA)

Trigger: Acceptance above 7540 followed by a successful retest.

Target: 7570 → 7580 (50 DMA)

Invalidation: Failed reclaim back below 7540..

🟢 Second Opportunity — 7473–7496 Hold Long

Trigger: Pullback into 7473–7496 support followed by responsive buying and reclaim.

Target: 7527 → 7580

Invalidation: Acceptance below 7472.

🟡 Only If — 7472 Failure Short

Trigger: Acceptance below 7472 with sellers maintaining control.

Target: 7420 → 7400

Invalidation: Reclaim above 7472.

🔴 Avoid

Chasing longs beneath the 50 DMA (7580).
Shorting the first test of 7473–7496 demand.
Trading between 7496 and 7527 without confirmation.
Assuming a trend change before reclaiming the moving averages.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

🟣 VWAP aligned with trade direction.

🟣 Delta confirms participation through reclaimed levels.

🟣 Acceptance holds above 7527 for continuation.

🟣 Break-and-retest structure confirms the move.

🟣 No first-touch chasing into 7580 supply.

🪞 SPX / SPY Alignment

SPX and SPY continue to consolidate beneath their key moving averages. The larger trend remains constructive, but neither market has shown enough strength to confirm a sustained breakout. Respect support, but don't chase strength into resistance.

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