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7/20 Trade Plan

7/16/20262 min read

⚡ Trade Plan

Ticker: /ES (September Contract)

Bias: Neutral → Bullish Above 7580

Market Condition: Range Rotation Below Key Moving Averages

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

ES remains trapped inside last week's range after defending 7472–7496 support. Price is now trading beneath both the 20 DMA (7530) and 50 DMA (7580), keeping the market in a balanced, rotational environment. 7580 is the decision level. Reclaim it, and buyers can target 7600+. Fail to hold support, and expect another test of the range lows.

📊 Key Levels

🟥 Resistance

7580 ⭐ 50 DMA / Decision Level
7585–7598 Major Supply
7635–7649 ATH Supply

🟩 Support

7472–7496 ⭐ Major Demand
7480 Overnight Low
7530 (20 DMA)

⭐ Highest Probability — 7472–7496 Hold Long

Trigger: Pullback into 7472–7496 holds with responsive buying and reclaim.

Target: 7530 → 7580

Invalidation: Acceptance below 7472.

🟢 Second Opportunity — 7580 Reclaim Long

Trigger: Acceptance above the 50 DMA (7580) followed by a successful retest.

Target: 7598 → 7635

Invalidation: Failed reclaim back below 7580.

🟡 Only If — 7472 Failure Short

Trigger: Acceptance below 7472 with sellers maintaining control.

Target: 7420 → 7400

Invalidation: Reclaim above 7472.

🔴 Avoid

Chasing longs beneath the 50 DMA.
Shorting the first test of 7472–7496 demand.
Trading the middle of the range without confirmation.
Assuming trend continuation before reclaiming 7580.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

🟣 VWAP aligned with trade direction.

🟣 Delta confirms participation through reclaimed levels.

🟣 Acceptance holds above 7530 and 7580 for continuation.

🟣 Break-and-retest structure confirms the move.

🟣 No first-touch chasing into 7585–7598 supply.

🪞 SPX / SPY Alignment

SPX and SPY remain in consolidation beneath major resistance. Neither has reclaimed its key moving averages, keeping the focus on buying support and waiting for confirmation rather than chasing breakouts.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.