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7/16 Trade Plan

7/16/20262 min read

⚡ Trade Plan

Ticker: /ES (September Contract)

Bias: Bullish Above 7585

Market Condition: Range Compression Beneath ATH

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

ES continues to hold above the 7585–7598 breakout zone. As long as buyers defend this area, the bullish structure remains intact. 7613 is supply. Respect it. A reclaim opens the door toward the 7636–7648 ATH zone. Lose 7585, and expect rotation back into the moving averages where chop is likely.

📊 Key Levels

🟥 Resistance

7613 ⭐ Major Supply
7636–7648 (ATH Supply)

🟩 Support

7585–7598 ⭐ Primary Support
7575 (50 DMA)
7533 (20 DMA)
7499
7472 (FOMC Low)

⭐ Highest Probability — 7598 Break & Hold Long

Trigger: Acceptance above 7598 followed by buyers holding the breakout.

Target: 7613 → 7632 → 7649

Invalidation: Acceptance back below 7598.

🟢 Second Opportunity — 7580 Hold Long

Trigger: Pullback into 7580 (overnight double bottom / 50 DMA) followed by responsive buying and reclaim.

Target: Rotation back toward 7598 → 7613

Invalidation: Acceptance below 7580.

🟡 Only If — 7535 Failure Short

Trigger: Acceptance below the 20 DMA (7535) with sellers maintaining control.

Target: 7499 → 7472 (FOMC Low)

Invalidation: Reclaim above 7535.

🔴 Avoid

Chasing longs into 7613–7632 supply.
Shorting the first test of 7580 support.
Trading the middle of the overnight range without confirmation.
Assuming a breakout before acceptance is confirmed.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

🟣 VWAP aligned with trade direction.

🟣 Delta confirms participation through reclaimed levels.

🟣 Acceptance holds above 7598 for continuation.

🟣 Break-and-retest structure confirms the move.

🟣 No first-touch chasing into 7613–7632 liquidity.

🪞 SPX / SPY Alignment

SPX and SPY continue consolidating beneath all-time highs. The higher-timeframe trend remains bullish, but neither market has confirmed a fresh breakout. Buy support, don't chase resistance.

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