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7/13 Trade Plan

7/13/20262 min read

⚡ Trade Plan

Ticker: /ES (September Contract)

Bias: Bullish Above 7585

Market Condition: Range Compression / Bullish Structure

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

Friday's sharp flush into 7552 was quickly absorbed, leaving behind a strong rejection wick and confirming buyers were willing to defend lower prices. Overnight, ES traded between 7566 and 7615, and is now sitting near 7601, right in the middle of the recent range.

Today's objective is simple: hold 7585–7598 as support. If buyers defend this zone, the path remains open toward 7637–7649. If that support fails, expect rotation back into the moving averages where buyers will need to prove themselves again.

📊 Key Levels

🟥 Resistance

7615 Overnight High
7637–7649 ⭐ ATH Supply

🟩 Support

7585–7598 ⭐ Primary Support
7569 (50 DMA)
7537 (20 DMA)
7496
7472 (FOMC Low)

⭐ Highest Probability — 7585 Hold Long

Trigger: Pullback into 7585–7598 holds with responsive buying and reclaim.

Target: 7615 → 7637 → 7649

Invalidation: Acceptance below 7585.

🟢 Second Opportunity — 7569–7537 Pullback Long

Trigger: Deeper pullback into the 50 DMA (7569) and 20 DMA (7537) followed by responsive buying and reclaim.

Target: Rotation back toward 7585 → 7615 → 7637

Invalidation: Acceptance below the 20 DMA (7537).

🟡 Only If — 7537 Failure Short

Trigger: Price loses the 20 DMA with acceptance and sellers remain in control.

Target: 7496 → 7472 (FOMC Low)

Invalidation: Reclaim back above the 20 DMA.

🔴 Avoid

Chasing longs directly into 7637–7649 resistance.
Shorting the first test of 7585–7598 support.
Trading the middle of the range without confirmation.
Assuming every pullback is a trend reversal while price remains above the moving averages.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

🟣 VWAP aligned with trade direction

🟣 Delta confirms participation through reclaimed levels

🟣 Acceptance holds above 7585–7598

🟣 Break-and-retest structure confirms continuation

🟣 No first-touch chasing into 7637–7649 liquidity

🪞 SPX / SPY Alignment

SPX and SPY continue to mirror ES, holding above key higher-timeframe support while consolidating beneath all-time highs. The broader trend remains constructive, but this is still a reaction market—not one to chase. Pullbacks into support remain the higher-probability opportunities.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.