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7/10 Trade Plan

7/10/20263 min read

⚡ Trade Plan

Ticker: /ES (September Contract)

Bias: Bullish Above 7602.50

Market Condition: Trend Continuation / Testing Major Supply

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

Buyers successfully reclaimed and defended both the 20 DMA and 50 DMA yesterday, shifting momentum back in their favor. Today's objective is straightforward: hold 7602.50 as new support. If buyers can build acceptance above that level, the path opens toward 7650 and potentially another leg toward new all-time highs.

The challenge is that ES is trading back into the same major supply zone that rejected price multiple times in June. This isn't a level to chase. Let the market prove buyers are in control before committing. If 7602.50 fails, expect rotation back toward the moving averages rather than immediate continuation.

📊 Key Levels

🟥 Resistance

7625–7632
7650 ⭐
ATH Extension

🟩 Support

7602.50 ⭐ Line in the Sand
7585–7590
20 DMA / 50 DMA

⭐ Highest Probability — 7602.50 Hold Long

Trigger: Pullback into 7602.50 holds as support with buyers reclaiming acceptance.

Target: 7625 → 7650

Invalidation: Sustained acceptance back below 7602.50.

Why: Holding 7602.50 confirms yesterday's breakout and keeps momentum favoring continuation.

🟢 Second Opportunity — 20/50 DMA Pullback Long

Trigger: Deeper pullback into the 20 DMA (7533.15) and 50 DMA (7562.28) followed by responsive buying and reclaim.

Target: Rotation back toward 7602.50 → 7650

Invalidation: Acceptance below the 20 DMA (7533.15). I chose the 20 DMA as the invalidation because it's the first layer of support. If price loses both moving averages, it has already lost the 20 DMA. This keeps the trade rule tighter and more actionable. If your intent is to give the trade more room, you can keep:

🟡 Only If — 7600 Supply Rejection

Trigger: Price pushes into 7625–7650 and shows clear rejection, failed acceptance, or exhaustion.

Target: Rotation back toward 7602.50 or the moving averages.

Invalidation: Acceptance above 7650.

🔴 Avoid

Chasing longs directly into 7650 without confirmation.
Shorting the first test of 7602.50 support.
Assuming every rejection becomes a reversal while price remains above the moving averages.
Fighting the prevailing trend without confirmation.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

🟣 VWAP aligned with trade direction

🟣 Delta confirms participation through 7602.50

🟣 Acceptance holds above reclaimed levels

🟣 Break-and-retest structure confirms continuation

🟣 No first-touch chasing into 7650 liquidity

🪞 SPX / SPY Alignment

SPX and SPY continue to support the bullish recovery, with both trading above their key moving averages. Like ES, they're approaching major resistance, making acceptance above current levels more important than simply tagging new highs.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.