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7/1 Trade Plan

7/1/20262 min read

⚡ Trade Plan

Ticker: /ES
Bias: Bullish Above 7513

Market Condition: Trend Continuation Above Key Support

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

ES continues to build higher lows after reclaiming the 20 DMA, with buyers repeatedly defending the 7513–7517 breakout zone. That area has now held multiple times and becomes today's primary support. As long as price remains above 7472 (FOMC Low), the path of least resistance remains higher.

The next objective is a test of the 7585–7600 supply zone, where sellers are expected to become more active.

📊 Key Levels

🟥 Resistance

7585–7600 ⭐ Major Supply

🟩 Support

7513–7517 ⭐ Primary Demand
7490–7500 ⭐ 50 DMA
7472 ⭐ FOMC Low / Line in the Sand

⭐ Prime Setup — 7513–7517 Hold Long

Trigger: Pullback into 7513–7517 followed by responsive buying and reclaim.

Target: 7585 → 7600

Invalidation: Acceptance below 7513.

🟢 A+ Setup — 7490–7500 Flush Reversal

Trigger: Sweep into the 50 DMA followed by responsive buying and reclaim.

Target: 7517 → 7585

Invalidation: Acceptance below 7490.

Why it matters: This is the next major demand zone if the primary support fails and offers the highest-quality pullback opportunity.

🟡 B-Tier Setup — 7585–7600 Rejection Fade

Trigger: Price rallies into major supply and fails to gain acceptance.

Target: 7517

Invalidation: Acceptance above 7600.

🔴 Avoid

Chasing longs directly into 7585–7600 supply.
Shorting above the 7472 FOMC Low.
Trading the middle of the range without confirmation.
Assuming resistance breaks on the first test.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

🟣 VWAP aligned with trade direction

🟣 Delta confirms participation through key levels

🟣 Acceptance above reclaimed levels

🟣 Break-and-retest structure holds at 7513–7517 or 7490–7500

🟣 No first-touch chasing into 7585–7600 liquidity

🪞 SPX / SPY Alignment

SPX and SPY continue to confirm the recovery, holding above recent breakout levels and key moving averages. The broader structure favors buying pullbacks while above support, but expect the first test of major overhead resistance to produce a reaction.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.