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7/ 2 Trade Plan

7/2/20262 min read

⚡ Trade Plan

Ticker: /ES
Bias: Bullish Above 7532 / Breakout Above 7600

Market Condition: Building Above Moving Averages

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

ES continues building above both the 20 DMA (7532) and 50 DMA (7539) after successfully defending yesterday's lows. Overnight buyers maintained higher prices, suggesting accumulation rather than distribution.

The key question today is whether buyers can convert this strength into a reclaim of the 7585–7600 supply. Until then, expect responsive buying on pullbacks and respect the first test of overhead resistance.

📊 Key Levels

🟥 Resistance

7576 Overnight High
7585–7600 ⭐ Major Supply
7630–7648 ATH Zone

🟩 Support

7532–7539 ⭐ 20 & 50 DMA
7506 Yesterday's Low
7472 FOMC Low

⭐ Prime Setup — 7532–7539 Hold Long

Trigger: Pullback into the moving averages followed by responsive buying.

Target: 7576 → 7600

Invalidation: Acceptance below 7506.

🟢 A+ Setup — 7600 Reclaim Breakout

Trigger: Acceptance above 7600 followed by a successful retest.

Target: 7630 → 7648 (ATH)

Invalidation: Failed reclaim back below 7585.

Why it matters: Clearing 7600 removes the largest remaining supply zone and opens the path back toward all-time highs.

🟡 B-Tier Setup — 7585–7600 Rejection Fade

Trigger: Price tests supply and fails to gain acceptance.

Target: 7539

Invalidation: Acceptance above 7600.

🔴 Avoid

Chasing longs directly into 7585–7600 resistance.
Shorting first touch into the 20/50 DMA support.
Fighting the trend while price holds above the moving averages.
Assuming every rejection at 7600 is a trend reversal.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

🟣 VWAP aligned above 7532

🟣 Delta confirms participation through 7576

🟣 Acceptance above reclaimed levels

🟣 Break-and-retest structure holds

🟣 No first-touch chasing into 7585–7600 liquidity

🪞 SPX / SPY Alignment

SPX and SPY continue recovering alongside ES and are holding above their key moving averages. All three indices favor buying pullbacks while above support, but the larger trend won't fully reassert itself until the 7600 supply is reclaimed.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.