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6/30 Trade Plan

6/30/20262 min read

⚡ Trade Plan

Ticker: /ES
Bias: Bullish Above 7472 / Aggressive Above 7529

Market Condition: Recovery Attempt Into Major Resistance

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

ES is attempting to build a higher low after defending the 7472–7500 demand zone. As long as buyers continue holding this area and the 50 DMA, the path favors further upside. The next major test is the 20 DMA at 7529, which has the potential to reject price on the first attempt.

A successful reclaim above the 20 DMA would mark a significant shift in market structure and open the door for a move toward the 7600 supply.

📊 Key Levels

🟥 Resistance

7529 ⭐ 20 DMA
7600 Major Supply

🟩 Support

7472–7500 ⭐ Major Demand / 50 DMA
7421–7408
7350–7330

⭐ Prime Setup — 7472–7500 Hold Long

Trigger: Pullback into demand holds with responsive buying and successful reclaim.

Target: 7529 → 7600

Invalidation: Acceptance below 7472.

🟢 A+ Setup — 7529 (20 DMA) Reclaim Long

Trigger: Acceptance above the 20 DMA followed by a successful retest.

Target: 7600

Invalidation: Failed reclaim back below 7529.

Why it matters: A clean reclaim of the 20 DMA would signal buyers are regaining control and could kick off the next leg higher.

🟡 B-Tier Setup — 7529 Rejection Fade

Trigger: Price tests the 20 DMA and fails to gain acceptance.

Target: 7500 → 7472

Invalidation: Acceptance above 7529.

🔴 Avoid

Chasing longs directly into the 20 DMA without confirmation.
Shorting first touch into the 7472–7500 demand zone.
Trading the middle of the range without structure.
Assuming a breakout before buyers reclaim the 20 DMA.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

🟣 VWAP aligned with trade direction

🟣 Delta confirms participation through key levels

🟣 Acceptance above reclaimed levels or below failed supply

🟣 Break-and-retest structure holds

🟣 No first-touch chasing into major liquidity zones

🪞 SPX / SPY Alignment

SPX and SPY continue to recover alongside ES, with all three markets attempting to reclaim key moving averages. The structure remains constructive above support, but confirmation only comes with acceptance above the 20 DMA. Until then, expect resistance to be respected.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.