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6/29Trade Plan

6/29/20262 min read

⚡ Trade Plan

Ticker: /ES
Bias: Neutral → Bullish Above 7500

Market Condition: Range Bound Between Major Demand & Supply

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

ES continues to trade between two well-defined extremes. Buyers have repeatedly defended the 7330–7350 demand zone, while sellers continue rejecting every rally into 7491–7512. Until one side breaks, this remains a range market where the highest-probability trades are found at the edges—not in the middle.

A sustained reclaim above 7500, the 50 DMA, would be the first sign that buyers are regaining control and could open the door for a move toward the 20 DMA.

📊 Key Levels

🟥 Resistance

7491–7512 ⭐ Major Supply / 50 DMA
7567 (20 DMA)

🟩 Support

7330–7350 ⭐ Major Demand
7300
7270

⭐ Prime Setup — 7330–7350 Hold Long

Trigger: Pullback into major demand followed by responsive buying and reclaim.

Target: 7491 → 7512

Invalidation: Acceptance below 7330.

🟢 A+ Setup — 7491–7512 Rejection Short

Trigger: Rally into the 7491–7512 supply zone (50 DMA) followed by exhaustion, absorption, or failed acceptance.

Target: 7400 → 7350

Invalidation: Acceptance above 7512.

Why it matters: This remains the cleanest trend trade while ES continues respecting lower highs. The 50 DMA and nearby 20 DMA create stacked resistance, making this the highest-probability fade until buyers prove otherwise.

🟢 A-Tier Setup — 7500 / 50 DMA Reclaim Long

Trigger: Acceptance above 7500 and the 50 DMA, followed by a successful retest.

Target: 7567 (20 DMA)

Invalidation: Failed reclaim back below 7491.

🔴 Avoid

Chasing longs directly into 7491–7512 supply.
Shorting first touch into 7330–7350 demand.
Trading the middle of the range without confirmation.
Assuming a breakout before the 50 DMA is reclaimed.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

🟣VWAP aligned with trade direction

🟣 Delta confirms participation through key levels

🟣 Acceptance above reclaimed levels or below failed supply

🟣 Break-and-retest structure holds

🟣 No first-touch chasing into major liquidity zones

🪞 SPX / SPY Alignment

SPX and SPY continue to mirror ES, holding above recent swing lows but still trading beneath major moving averages. Both remain in recovery mode rather than confirmed uptrends. A reclaim of overhead resistance is needed before expecting trend continuation.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.