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6/26 Trade Plan

6/26/20262 min read

⚡ Trade Plan

Ticker: /ES
Bias: Bearish Below 7421 / Bullish on Reclaim

Market Condition: Downtrend Within Larger Range

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

ES continues to respect the short-term downtrend, with break-and-retest rejections keeping sellers in control. Overnight, price rejected the 7409–7421 zone once again, making it today's key pivot.

As long as we're below 7421, rallies remain opportunities to sell into resistance. A reclaim of that zone would shift the market back into balance and open the door for a move toward the 50 DMA.

📊 Key Levels

🟥 Resistance

7409–7421 ⭐ Key Supply
7480–7500 ⭐ 50 DMA / Major Resistance

🟩 Support

7330–7354 ⭐ Major Demand
7300
7270

⭐ Prime Setup — 7409–7421 Rejection Short

Trigger: Rally into 7409–7421 followed by rejection and failed acceptance.

Target: 7354 → 7330

Invalidation: Acceptance above 7421.

🟢 A+ Setup — 7421 Reclaim Long

Trigger: Acceptance back above 7421 with buyers holding the retest.

Target: 7480 → 7500 (50 DMA)

Invalidation: Failed reclaim back below 7409.

🟡 B-Tier Setup — 7330–7354 Reversal Long

Trigger: Flush into major demand followed by responsive buying and reclaim.

Target: Rotation back toward 7409.

Invalidation: Acceptance below 7330.

🔴 Avoid

Chasing shorts directly into 7330–7354 demand.
Buying before 7421 is reclaimed.
Trading the middle of the range without confirmation.
Fighting the prevailing trend until structure changes.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

🟣 VWAP aligned with trade direction

🟣 Delta confirms participation

🟣 Acceptance above reclaimed levels or below failed supply

🟣 Break-and-retest structure holds

🟣 No first-touch chasing into major liquidity zones

🟣 Let sellers prove continuation before pressing shorts into demand

🪞 SPX / SPY Alignment

SPX and SPY remain beneath key moving averages and continue to confirm the same corrective structure. Both suggest patience until buyers reclaim overhead resistance rather than assuming every bounce is a trend reversal.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.