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6/25 Trade Plan
6/25/20262 min read
⚡ Trade Plan
Ticker: /ES
Bias: Neutral / Range Bound Until Breakout
Market Condition: Consolidation Above Support
🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.
🧭 Context
ES continues to consolidate after holding 7403. Overnight range developed between 7451 and 7491, with price currently holding above the 7462–7473 support zone.
The key development overnight was repeated rejection at 7488–7491, with negative delta showing signs of absorption rather than aggressive buying. Until buyers reclaim that area, this remains a range market.
📊 Key Levels
🟥 Resistance
7488–7491 ⭐ Active Supply
7496–7506
7516 (50 DMA)
7552–7558
7595 (20 DMA)
🟩 Support
7480–7482 ⭐ Intraday Support
7462–7473 ⭐ Primary Demand
7451 Overnight Low
7403 Prior Low
7354–7336 Major Demand
⭐ Prime Setup — 7462–7473 Hold Long
Trigger: Pullback into demand followed by responsive buying.
Target: 7491 → 7516
Invalidation: Acceptance below 7451.
🟢 A+ Setup — 7516 Reclaim Long
Trigger: Acceptance above the 50 DMA.
Target: 7552 → 7595
Invalidation: Failed reclaim below 7516.
🟡 B-Tier Setup — 7488–7491 Rejection Fade
Trigger: Rejection at supply with delta exhaustion.
Target: 7480 → 7473
Invalidation: Acceptance above 7491.
🔴 Avoid
Chasing longs into 7488–7516 resistance.
Shorting first touch into 7462–7473 demand.
Trading the middle of the range.
Assuming trend reversal before reclaiming the 50 DMA.
🧩 RAIN Confirmation
🟣VWAP aligned
🟣 Delta confirms participation
🟣 Acceptance above reclaimed levels
🟣 Break-and-retest structure holds
🟣 No first-touch chasing into liquidity
🟣 Negative delta into resistance = absorption until proven otherwise
🪞 SPX / SPY Alignment
SPX and SPY continue stabilizing beneath major resistance. Both support the same thesis as ES: consolidation first, trend resumption second.
Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.
Chart setup: RAIN Break + Retest Template
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