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6/24 Trade Plan

6/24/20262 min read

⚡ Trade Plan

Ticker: /ES
Bias: Neutral → Bearish Below 7462 / Bullish on Reclaims
Market Condition: Corrective Channel / Sell the Rip Until Proven Otherwise

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

ES remains trapped in a well-defined downward channel. Yesterday's low held at 7416, but buyers have repeatedly failed to sustain moves higher. Overnight, price found support again near 7419, yet could not reclaim above 7459, keeping the market pinned beneath former support turned resistance.

Until buyers reclaim key overhead levels, this remains a reaction market rather than a trend market. Focus on the extremes of the range and avoid getting chopped in the middle.

📊 Key Levels

🟥 Resistance

7462–7473 ⭐ Former Support → Resistance
7506–7512 Major Supply / 50 DMA Reclaim
7552–7558
7605 (20 DMA)

🟩 Support

7416–7419 ⭐ Channel Support / Overnight Low
7354–7336 ⭐ Major Demand Zone
7309 (50 DMA)

⭐ Prime Setup — 7462–7473 Rejection Fade

Trigger: Price pushes into former support turned resistance and fails to gain acceptance.

Target: 7419 → 7354

Invalidation: Acceptance above 7473.

This remains the highest-probability trade while the channel is intact.

🟢 A+ Setup — 7506–7512 Reclaim Long

Trigger: Buyers reclaim and hold above 7506–7512, signaling a shift in market character.

Target: 7552 → 7605 (20 DMA)

Invalidation: Failed reclaim back below 7506.

This is the trend-change trade. If this triggers, the corrective structure begins to weaken.

🟡 B-Tier Setup — 7354 Flush Reversal

Trigger: Sweep into 7354–7336 demand followed by responsive buying and reclaim.

Target: Rotation back toward 7419 → 7462

Invalidation: Acceptance below 7336.

Best used if sellers press the lower end of the channel.

🔴 Avoid

Chasing longs directly into 7462–7473 resistance.
Shorting first touch into 7354–7336 demand.
Trading the middle of the range between 7419 and 7462.
Assuming every bounce marks a trend reversal.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

🟣VWAP aligned with the direction of the trade.

🟣 Delta confirms participation through the trigger level.

🟣 Acceptance holds above reclaimed levels or below failed levels.

🟣 Break-and-retest structure confirms the setup.

🟣 No first-touch chasing into major liquidity zones.

🪞 SPX / SPY Alignment

SPX and SPY continue to reflect the same message: stabilization within a pullback rather than full trend resumption. Until the indices reclaim their major resistance zones and moving averages, rallies should be respected but not chased.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.