Unlock exclusive discounts on trading tools!

6/22 Trade Plan

6/22/20263 min read

⚡ Trade Plan

Ticker: /ES
Bias: Bullish Above 7552 / Cautious Below 7506
Market Condition: Buy-the-Dip Within Recovery Structure

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

ES continues to stabilize and build above the 20 DMA (7511.7) after last week's liquidation flush. Overnight buyers defended the 7512 area and pushed price toward the upper end of the range. We're currently trading around 7559, just beneath the next resistance pocket.

The larger structure remains constructive as long as pullbacks continue to find support. Today's focus is whether buyers can maintain acceptance above 7552–7558 and extend toward higher resistance. Lose 7506, and odds increase for a rotation back into deeper support.

📊 Key Levels

🟥 Resistance

7579–7585
7600 ⭐ (20DMA / Key Reclaim Level)
7607–7612
7631–7640
7648 ATH

🟩 Support

7552–7558.5 ⭐ Immediate Pivot
7506–7512 Major Support / Overnight Low
7473–7462 Secondary Demand

⭐ Prime Setup — 7506–7512 Pullback Long

Trigger: Pullback into channel demand holds with responsive buying.

Target: 7552 → 7585 → 7600.

Invalidation: Acceptance below 7506.

🟢 A+ Setup — 7600 Reclaim

Trigger: Acceptance above the 20DMA and 7600 supply.

Target: 7650 → 7683.

Invalidation: Failed reclaim back below 7600.

🟡 B-Tier Setup — 7585–7600 Rejection Fade

Trigger: Push into supply that fails to gain acceptance.

Target: 7552 → 7506

Invalidation: Acceptance above 7600.

🔴 Avoid

Chasing longs directly into 7579–7585 resistance.
Shorting first touch into 7506–7512 support.
Assuming every push higher means immediate ATH continuation.
Trading breakouts without acceptance above key levels.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

🟣 VWAP aligned above 7552 for continuation.

🟣 Delta confirms participation through 7579.

🟣 Acceptance holds above reclaimed levels (7552 → 7579).

🟣 Break-and-retest structure holds at 7552 or 7506.

🟣 No first-touch chasing into 7579–7585 liquidity.

🪞 SPX / SPY Alignment

SPX continues to support the broader recovery thesis but has not officially broken into expansion. Cash is sitting around 7500 ahead of the open, with the recent range defined by the Thursday low near 7400 and the most recent swing high around 7511. The 20 DMA sits near 7485, making that an important line in the sand.

SPY mirrors this structure. Both indices remain above their key moving averages and recent lows, but neither has fully entered price discovery. Their message remains consistent with ES: buy-the-dip until proven otherwise, but let the market reclaim and hold before assuming another impulsive leg higher.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.