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6/18 Trade Plan

6/18/20262 min read

⚡ Trade Plan

Ticker: /ES
Bias: Neutral → Bullish Above 7552 / Bearish Below 7523
Market Condition: Relief Bounce Inside Corrective Structure

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

ES continues to stabilize after the sharp liquidation flush earlier this week. Buyers defended the 7472–7505 area and have since rotated back higher, but price remains trapped beneath the larger resistance zone overhead.

Overnight, ES traded between 7523 and 7568, and we're currently sitting around 7547. The key question today isn't whether we bounce—it's whether buyers can build acceptance back above 7552–7558 and continue the recovery toward 7580+. Otherwise, this remains a range-bound market vulnerable to another retest lower.

📊 Key Levels

🟥 Resistance

7568 Overnight High
7579–7585
7608–7612
7631–7641

🟩 Support

7552–7558 ⭐ Immediate Pivot
7523 Overnight Low
7505.7 20 DMA

⭐ Prime Setup — 7552 Hold & Reclaim Long

Trigger: Pullback into 7552–7558 holds and buyers reclaim acceptance above the zone.

Target: 7568 → 7580 → 7608

Invalidation: Sustained acceptance below 7523.

🟢 A-Tier Setup — 7523 Flush Reversal

Trigger: Sweep overnight lows at 7523 into the 20 DMA (7505) followed by responsive buying and reclaim.

Target: Rotation back toward 7552 → 7568

Invalidation: Acceptance below the 20 DMA.

🟡 B-Tier Setup — 7568 Rejection Fade

Trigger: Price pushes into 7568–7580 and fails to hold above resistance.

Target: 7552 → 7523

Invalidation: Acceptance above 7585.

🔴 Avoid

Chasing longs directly into 7568–7585 resistance.
Shorting first touch into 7523 or the 20 DMA.
Assuming every bounce means the trend has resumed.
Overtrading holiday/thinner conditions without confirmation.

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

🟣 VWAP aligned above 7552 for continuation.

🟣 Delta confirms participation through 7568.

🟣 Acceptance holds above reclaimed levels (7552 → 7568).

🟣 Break-and-retest structure holds at 7552 or 7523.

🟣 No first-touch chasing into 7568–7585 liquidity.

🪞 SPX / SPY Alignment

SPX and SPY are telling the same story as ES. SPX remains below the 7436–7481 resistance zone, with the daily 20 DMA near 7479 acting as overhead pressure. SPY continues to chop inside the 742–750 range, with 750–751 serving as near-term resistance and 742–743 as the first meaningful support.

The bigger takeaway: none of the indices have reclaimed breakout structure yet. This still looks like stabilization, not trend resumption.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.