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6/17 Trade Plan

6/17/20263 min read

⚡ Trade Plan

Ticker: /ES
Bias: Bullish Above 7578 / Cautious Near ATH
Market Condition: ATH Consolidation / Pullback Buy Environment

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

ES continues to consolidate after making a fresh ATH at 7648.75. Overnight, buyers defended the 7578–7581 area and pushed into 7612, keeping the market in a tight range beneath all-time highs.

The larger trend remains bullish, but this is no longer a chase environment. The focus shifts to whether buyers can continue defending higher lows above 7578. If they can, another push toward ATH becomes likely. If support fails, we could rotate back into the 7540 demand zone before finding buyers again.

📊 Key Levels

🟥 Resistance

7613 ONH
7630–7631 ⭐
7648.75 ATH ⭐

🟩 Support

7581–7578 ⭐
7540 ⭐
7504 (20DMA)
7327 (50DMA)

⭐ Prime Setup — 7578 Hold & Reclaim Long

Trigger: Pullback into 7578–7581 followed by responsive buying and reclaim

Target: 7613 → 7631 → 7648.75 ATH

Invalidation: Acceptance below 7578

🟢 A-Tier Setup — 7540 Demand Long

Trigger: Flush into 7540 demand followed by reclaim and higher-low formation

Target: 7578 → 7613

Invalidation: Acceptance below 7540

🟡 B-Tier Setup — 7631 ATH Rejection Fade

Trigger: Push into 7630–7631 or ATH resistance with exhaustion or failed acceptance

Target: 7613 → 7578

Invalidation: Acceptance above 7648.75

🔴 Avoid

Chasing longs directly into 7630–7648 resistance
Shorting directly into 7578 support
Trading the middle of the range without confirmation
Assuming ATH breakout continuation before acceptance above resistance

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

🟣 VWAP aligned above 7578

🟣 Delta confirms continuation through 7578

🟣 Acceptance above reclaimed 7578 structure

🟣 Break-and-retest holds at 7578–7581

🟣 No first-touch chasing into 7630–7648 liquidity

🟣 Acceptance above 7648.75 improves odds of further price discovery

🟣 Confirm volume participation is occurring on the September contract

📈 SPX Swing Thesis — 30M / Swings

Bias: Bullish Above 7480 / Cautious Below
Market Condition: Buy-the-Dip Until Proven Otherwise

🟢 Bullish Case
Pullbacks into 7480 hold → higher lows form → continuation toward 7578.
Break + acceptance above 7578 → expansion phase toward ATH retest.

🔴 Bearish Case
Loss of 7480 → opens retracement into 7273–7258 demand zone.
Break of that zone → shift from pullback to broader correction.

🚫 Avoid
Chasing into ATH resistance.
Treating every dip as a reversal.
Shorting directly into major support.
Reacting to intraday noise instead of structure.

🟣 Confirmation
Daily closes above 7480 hold structure.
Momentum needs acceptance above 7578 (not wick-based).
Higher lows persist on 4H + Daily structure.

SPY (30min)

Look for the higher low to develop at the 749.44/749.80. If we can get that to hold, we can try for the 753 supply again. Reclaim 753 for the real upside move into 755. If we fail below 749.44, we likley see the gap fill towards 745.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.