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6/16 Trade Plan

6/16/20262 min read

⚡ Trade Plan

Ticker: /ES
Bias: Bullish Above 7610 / Cautious Near ATH
Market Condition: ATH Consolidation / Gap Expansion

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

ES made a fresh ATH yesterday at 7648.75, confirming buyers remain in control after reclaiming the 20DMA. Overnight, price consolidated between 7610–7630, suggesting the market is digesting gains rather than outright rejecting them.

The broader thesis remains intact: this is still a buy-the-dip environment until proven otherwise. The key is whether buyers continue defending the 7600–7584 demand zone. If they do, the path higher toward ATH and 7680 remains open. If they lose that area, expect a deeper pullback into Friday's highs near 7560.

📊 Key Levels

🟥 Resistance

7640
7648.75 ATH ⭐
7680

🟩 Support

7600–7584 ⭐
7560 ⭐
7495 (20DMA)

⭐ Prime Setup — 7600 Pullback Long

Trigger: Pullback into 7600–7584 followed by responsive buying and reclaim

Target: 7640 → 7648.75 ATH → 7680

Invalidation: Acceptance below 7584

🟢 A-Tier Setup — 7560 Demand Long

Trigger: Flush into 7560 followed by reclaim and higher low formation

Target: 7600 → 7640

Invalidation: Acceptance below 7560

🟡 B-Tier Setup — 7584 Breakdown Scalp

Trigger: Failed reclaim below 7584

Target: 7560

Invalidation: Acceptance back above 7600

🔴 Avoid

Chasing longs directly into ATH resistance
Shorting into 7600 support
Trading the middle of the range without confirmation
Assuming a major reversal while above the 20DMA

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

🟣 VWAP aligned above 7600

🟣 Delta confirms continuation through 7600

🟣 Acceptance above reclaimed 7600 structure

🟣 Break-and-retest holds at 7600–7584

🟣 No first-touch chasing into 7640–7648 liquidity

🟣 Acceptance above ATH improves odds of expansion toward 7680

🟣 Confirm volume participation is occurring on the September contract

SPY 30MIN

Look for pullbacks to the 752 or deeper at the 750. I would like to see both levels tested. Possible pullbck demand spots. If we break over 755.38 today & hold it, we could see the run into 758.

If we fail below 750 today, that is where the downside comes in towards the 20DMA at 745.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.