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6/15 Trade Plan

6/15/20262 min read

⚡ Trade Plan

Ticker: /ES
Bias: Bullish Above 7540 / Trend Continuation
Market Condition: 20DMA Reclaim / ATH Retest

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

ES has completed a strong recovery from last week's lows, reclaiming the 20DMA and pushing back toward ATH territory. Overnight buyers continued the move higher, printing an overnight high at 7600 before consolidating near 7590.

The key shift is that ES is now trading above the 20DMA at 7483. What was resistance has become support. As long as buyers defend the 7540–7524 area, the path remains open toward the ATH at 7632.

Today's auction is simple: hold above the reclaimed 20DMA structure and continue higher, or lose it and rotate back into the prior range.

📊 Key Levels

🟥 Resistance

7600 ONH
7632 ATH ⭐
Blue Skies Above

🟩 Support

7540–7524 ⭐
7483 (20DMA) ⭐
7455–7450
7289 (50DMA)

⭐ Prime Setup — 7540 Hold & Reclaim Long

Trigger: Pullback into 7540–7524 followed by responsive buying

Target: 7600 → 7632 ATH

Invalidation: Acceptance below 7524

🟢 A-Tier Setup — 7483 (20DMA) Retest Long

Trigger: Flush into the 20DMA followed by reclaim

Target: 7540 → 7600

Invalidation: Acceptance below 7483

🟡 B-Tier Setup — 7632 ATH Rejection Fade

Trigger: Failure to accept above ATH after breakout attempt

Target: 7600 → 7540

Invalidation: Acceptance above 7632

🔴 Avoid

Chasing longs directly into ATH resistance
Shorting above the 20DMA without confirmation
Trading the middle of the range between 7540 and 7600
Assuming breakout continuation before acceptance above ATH

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

🟣 VWAP aligned above 7540

🟣 Delta confirms continuation through 7540

🟣 Acceptance above reclaimed 20DMA structure

🟣 Break-and-retest holds at 7540–7524

🟣 No first-touch chasing into 7600–7632 liquidity

🟣 Acceptance above 7632 opens the path for further price discovery

SPY 5MIN

Would love to see a retest of some last week highs between 744.44/745.34. This would be back to Monday highs, Friday highs & the major structure from Tuesday. Love that spot for new longs if we get it. That is also the 20DMA, a lot of confluences there. If we break over 751.55, we likely run into the 755 supply. Below 744.44, we would look for the gap fill at 742.50. Below 742.50, sellers would get more aggressive into the 738 demand.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.