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6/12 Trade Plan

6/12/20262 min read

⚡ Trade Plan

Ticker: /ES
Bias: Neutral → Bullish Above 7404
Market Condition: Recovery Rally / 20DMA Test

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

ES held overnight support at 7372 twice and pushed aggressively higher into 7450. Buyers continue defending higher lows after reclaiming the 7400 area.

Today's focus is simple: can 7404 turn into support? If buyers defend that zone, the path opens toward the 20DMA and potentially 7470+. If 7404 fails, look for rotation back into the stronger demand zone at 7354–7335.

📊 Key Levels

🟥 Resistance

7450 ONH
7475 (20DMA) ⭐
7540

🟩 Support

7404 ⭐
7386
7354–7335 ⭐
7270 (50DMA)

⭐ Prime Setup — 7404 Hold & Reclaim Long

Trigger: Pullback into 7404 followed by responsive buying

Target: 7450 → 7475

Invalidation: Acceptance below 7386

🟢 A-Tier Setup — 7335 Demand Long

Trigger: Flush into 7354–7335 demand followed by reclaim

Target: 7404 → 7450

Invalidation: Acceptance below 7335

🟡 B-Tier Setup — 7475 Rejection Fade

Trigger: Failure at the 20DMA after a push into resistance

Target: 7450 → 7404

Invalidation: Acceptance above 7475

🔴 Avoid

Chasing longs directly into the 20DMA
Shorting directly into 7404 support
Trading the middle of the range
Forcing trades before confirmation

🧩 RAIN Confirmation

🟣 VWAP aligned above 7404

🟣 Delta confirms continuation through 7404

🟣 Acceptance above reclaimed 7404 structure

🟣 Break-and-retest holds at 7404

🟣 No first-touch chasing into 7475 liquidity

🟣 Acceptance above 7475 opens the path toward 7540

SPY 5MIN

Pullback long at the 736/738 is something to watch, retest of Wednesday highs. Below 736.62, we could see more downside into the 731.50/733. That would be a clean retest of the Thursday early morning high & Friday lows. I would only short on a fail below 731.58. If we reclaim the 20DMA at 745.34, we go to 750.

Want to see how I spot setups like this? Check out the template and follow along daily for my trade plans.